What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 5 Oct 2026.
Over 594 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), Aston Villa drew 122 where the draw model expected 148.8 from those particular fixtures — about 27 fewer, or 2.6 standard errors, more of a gap than most, though roughly one subject in twenty looks like this by chance.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 7 times running. A flat league average would have expected 150.4 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23 | 28 Sep 2025 → 03 Jan 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 21 | 22 Feb 2025 → 19 Jul 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 19 | 14 Jan 1998 → 10 May 1998 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 15 | 25 Sep 2021 → 10 Jan 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 15 | 04 Jan 2015 → 04 Apr 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 15 | 06 Oct 1982 → 29 Jul 1983 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 14 | 12 Sep 2020 → 12 Dec 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 14 | 30 Jan 2016 → 30 Apr 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 14 | 30 Sep 1996 → 26 Dec 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 13 | 31 Jan 2017 → 04 Apr 2017 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1153 | 318 | 27.6% | 2 | 16 |
| FA Cup | 435 | 83 | 19.1% | 2 | 7 |
| League Cup | 261 | 49 | 18.8% | 1 | 8 |
| Championship | 138 | 41 | 29.7% | 1 | 13 |
| UEFA Europa League | 71 | 14 | 19.7% | 15 | 15 |
| Club Friendlies | 34 | 9 | 26.5% | 7 | 7 |
| UEFA Champions League | 28 | 4 | 14.3% | 1 | 7 |
| UEFA Conference League | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 5 | 5 |
| FA Community Shield | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 0 | 1 |
| UEFA Super Cup | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 2 |
| Intercontinental Cup (Toyota Cup) | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43 | 6 | 14.0% | 10 |
| 2025 | 64 | 10 | 15.6% | 22 |
| 2024 | 55 | 13 | 23.6% | 9 |
| 2023 | 54 | 10 | 18.5% | 11 |
| 2022 | 43 | 9 | 20.9% | 9 |
| 2021 | 46 | 7 | 15.2% | 13 |
| 2020 | 40 | 8 | 20.0% | 14 |
| 2019 | 46 | 9 | 19.6% | 10 |
| 2018 | 50 | 13 | 26.0% | 8 |
| 2017 | 51 | 11 | 21.6% | 13 |
| 2016 | 51 | 16 | 31.4% | 14 |
| 2015 | 51 | 10 | 19.6% | 15 |
| 2014 | 40 | 9 | 22.5% | 9 |
| 2013 | 43 | 10 | 23.3% | 8 |
| 2012 | 45 | 15 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 2011 | 43 | 15 | 34.9% | 4 |
| 2010 | 52 | 16 | 30.8% | 10 |
| 2009 | 47 | 13 | 27.7% | 10 |
| 2008 | 50 | 14 | 28.0% | 9 |
| 2007 | 40 | 13 | 32.5% | 6 |
| 2006 | 46 | 16 | 34.8% | 5 |
| 2005 | 42 | 11 | 26.2% | 11 |
| 2004 | 44 | 12 | 27.3% | 9 |
| 2003 | 41 | 11 | 26.8% | 8 |
| 2002 | 44 | 11 | 25.0% | 11 |
| 2001 | 46 | 15 | 32.6% | 8 |
| 2000 | 46 | 18 | 39.1% | 5 |
| 1999 | 46 | 10 | 21.7% | 8 |
| 1998 | 46 | 8 | 17.4% | 19 |
| 1997 | 51 | 14 | 27.5% | 6 |
| 1996 | 52 | 12 | 23.1% | 14 |
| 1995 | 45 | 12 | 26.7% | 8 |
| 1994 | 57 | 14 | 24.6% | 9 |
| 1993 | 34 | 12 | 35.3% | 8 |
| 1992 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1991 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 2 |
| 1990 | 13 | 1 | 7.7% | 12 |
| 1989 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1988 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1987 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1986 | 13 | 6 | 46.2% | 2 |
| 1985 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1984 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1983 | 16 | 2 | 12.5% | 10 |
| 1982 | 16 | 3 | 18.8% | 5 |
| 1981 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 6 |
| 1980 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 3 |
| 1979 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1978 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1977 | 21 | 7 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 1976 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1975 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 8 |
| 1974 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 2 |
| 1973 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1972 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1971 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1970 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1969 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 1968 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1967 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1966 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1965 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1964 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1963 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1962 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1961 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 6 |
| 1960 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 5 |
| 1959 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1958 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1957 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 3 |
| 1956 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1955 | 7 | 5 | 71.4% | 1 |
| 1954 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1953 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1952 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1951 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1950 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1949 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1948 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1947 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1946 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 7 |
| 1939 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1938 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1937 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1936 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1935 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1934 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1933 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1932 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1931 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1930 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1929 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1928 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1927 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1926 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1925 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1924 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1923 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1922 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1921 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1920 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1915 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1914 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1913 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1912 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1911 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1910 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1909 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1908 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1907 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1906 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1905 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1904 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1903 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1902 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1901 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 1 |
| 1900 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1899 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1898 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1897 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1896 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1895 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1894 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1893 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1892 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1891 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1890 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1889 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1888 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1887 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 5 |
| 1886 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1885 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1884 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1883 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1882 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1881 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1880 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1879 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 14:00 |
Aston Villa
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.8% |
|
| Wed, 14 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 14 Oct 19:00 |
Aston Villa
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 18.4% |
|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 17 Oct 16:30 |
Newcastle United
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 26.7% |
|
| Wed, 21 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 21 Oct 19:00 |
Aston Villa
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 22.0% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 11:30 |
Aston Villa
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.3% |
|
| Wed, 28 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 28 Oct 19:45 |
Bournemouth
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.0% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 31 Oct 20:00 |
Aston Villa
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.4% |
|
| Tue, 03 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 03 Nov 20:00 |
Barcelona
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 17.4% |
|
| Sun, 08 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 08 Nov 16:30 |
Manchester United
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.4% |
|
| Sun, 23 May 2027 | ||||||
| 23 May 14:00 |
Manchester City
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 19.5% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.