Ajax
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 607 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), Ajax drew 122 where the draw model expected 104.0 from those particular fixtures — about 18 more, or 2.0 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 4 times running. A flat league average would have expected 137.7 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24 | 09 Apr 1995 → 28 Oct 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 23 | 10 Nov 2019 → 19 Mar 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 20 | 01 Nov 2003 → 21 Mar 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 18 | 14 Mar 1987 → 29 Jul 1988 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 17 | 19 Mar 2017 → 09 Sep 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 17 | 03 Feb 2010 → 06 May 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 16 | 21 Nov 2021 → 19 Feb 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 16 | 29 Jan 2012 → 06 May 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 15 | 11 Jan 2025 → 13 Mar 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 15 | 24 Jan 2019 → 06 Apr 2019 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eredivisie | 1120 | 216 | 19.3% | 0 | 26 |
| UEFA Champions League | 237 | 60 | 25.3% | 8 | 9 |
| UEFA Europa League | 169 | 31 | 18.3% | 10 | 10 |
| KNVB Cup | 76 | 5 | 6.6% | 2 | 16 |
| Club Friendlies | 73 | 19 | 26.0% | 3 | 7 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 28 | 2 | 7.1% | 1 | 14 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 | 10 |
| UEFA Super Cup | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 1 | 2 |
| UEFA Conference League | 4 | 3 | 75.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Johan Cruyff Shield | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Intercontinental Cup (Toyota Cup) | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 0 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35 | 12 | 34.3% | 4 |
| 2025 | 56 | 12 | 21.4% | 15 |
| 2024 | 51 | 14 | 27.5% | 7 |
| 2023 | 57 | 15 | 26.3% | 7 |
| 2022 | 51 | 8 | 15.7% | 11 |
| 2021 | 63 | 10 | 15.9% | 11 |
| 2020 | 44 | 3 | 6.8% | 14 |
| 2019 | 60 | 8 | 13.3% | 15 |
| 2018 | 50 | 10 | 20.0% | 11 |
| 2017 | 48 | 5 | 10.4% | 17 |
| 2016 | 46 | 13 | 28.3% | 10 |
| 2015 | 46 | 12 | 26.1% | 6 |
| 2014 | 47 | 12 | 25.5% | 9 |
| 2013 | 46 | 9 | 19.6% | 10 |
| 2012 | 46 | 9 | 19.6% | 16 |
| 2011 | 48 | 10 | 20.8% | 15 |
| 2010 | 54 | 11 | 20.4% | 17 |
| 2009 | 48 | 8 | 16.7% | 12 |
| 2008 | 46 | 8 | 17.4% | 12 |
| 2007 | 41 | 11 | 26.8% | 5 |
| 2006 | 50 | 8 | 16.0% | 14 |
| 2005 | 43 | 7 | 16.3% | 15 |
| 2004 | 44 | 9 | 20.5% | 11 |
| 2003 | 46 | 9 | 19.6% | 10 |
| 2002 | 41 | 11 | 26.8% | 13 |
| 2001 | 40 | 8 | 20.0% | 10 |
| 2000 | 39 | 8 | 20.5% | 8 |
| 1999 | 38 | 5 | 13.2% | 13 |
| 1998 | 39 | 9 | 23.1% | 15 |
| 1997 | 46 | 6 | 13.0% | 13 |
| 1996 | 49 | 15 | 30.6% | 6 |
| 1995 | 49 | 8 | 16.3% | 24 |
| 1994 | 40 | 7 | 17.5% | 15 |
| 1993 | 21 | 2 | 9.5% | 8 |
| 1992 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 1991 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 6 |
| 1989 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1988 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 1987 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 1986 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1985 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1984 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1983 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1982 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1981 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1980 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1979 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1978 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 1977 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1976 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1975 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1974 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1973 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1972 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 3 |
| 1971 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 6 |
| 1970 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1969 | 16 | 1 | 6.3% | 13 |
| 1968 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1967 | 4 | 3 | 75.0% | 1 |
| 1966 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1961 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1960 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1958 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1957 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 19:00 |
Ajax
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 19.5% |
|
| Thu, 15 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 15 Oct 16:45 |
Hajduk Split
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 20.8% |
|
| Sun, 18 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 18 Oct 14:45 |
Groningen
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.1% |
|
| Thu, 22 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 22 Oct 19:00 |
Ajax
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 22.8% |
|
| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 25 Oct 15:45 |
Sparta Rotterdam
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.0% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 31 Oct 20:00 |
Ajax
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.1% |
|
| Thu, 05 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 05 Nov 17:45 |
Midtjylland
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 17.3% |
|
| Sun, 08 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 08 Nov 13:30 |
Twente
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.0% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.