Académica de Coimbra
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 532 matches (Jul 1968 – Sep 2026), Académica de Coimbra drew 168 where the draw model expected 139.5 from those particular fixtures — about 29 more, or 2.8 standard errors, more of a gap than most, though roughly one subject in twenty looks like this by chance.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 8 times running. A flat league average would have expected 135.1 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15 | 22 Oct 2006 → 11 Mar 2007 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 11 | 11 Sep 2005 → 04 Dec 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 9 | 17 May 2015 → 03 Oct 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 9 | 14 May 2011 → 21 Oct 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 05 Sep 2004 → 12 Nov 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 18 Mar 2012 → 12 May 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 8 | 29 Nov 2009 → 06 Feb 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 24 Jan 2003 → 15 Mar 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 7 | 30 Jan 2006 → 11 Mar 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 14 Feb 2004 → 26 Mar 2004 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primeira Liga | 512 | 163 | 31.8% | 1 | 15 |
| UEFA Europa League | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 2 | 2 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 0 | 3 |
| Taça de Portugal | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Club Friendlies | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2023 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2021 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2016 | 20 | 6 | 30.0% | 3 |
| 2015 | 34 | 14 | 41.2% | 9 |
| 2014 | 30 | 14 | 46.7% | 3 |
| 2013 | 32 | 6 | 18.8% | 6 |
| 2012 | 35 | 15 | 42.9% | 8 |
| 2011 | 29 | 8 | 27.6% | 9 |
| 2010 | 30 | 8 | 26.7% | 4 |
| 2009 | 32 | 9 | 28.1% | 5 |
| 2008 | 28 | 13 | 46.4% | 5 |
| 2007 | 30 | 9 | 30.0% | 7 |
| 2006 | 32 | 10 | 31.3% | 8 |
| 2005 | 35 | 11 | 31.4% | 11 |
| 2004 | 34 | 5 | 14.7% | 9 |
| 2003 | 34 | 10 | 29.4% | 8 |
| 2002 | 15 | 6 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1999 | 18 | 5 | 27.8% | 4 |
| 1998 | 36 | 11 | 30.6% | 5 |
| 1997 | 14 | 5 | 35.7% | 3 |
| 1971 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1970 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1969 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1968 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 18 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 18 Oct 14:00 |
Académica de Coimbra
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vs |
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– / – / – | 22.8% |
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Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.