T Nield
Over 253 matches (Oct 2015 – Oct 2026), T Nield drew 64 where the draw model expected 69.9 from those particular fixtures — about 6 fewer, or 0.8 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 68.4 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| Competition | Matches | Draws | Draw % |
|---|---|---|---|
| ENG · League Two | 84 | 15 | 17.9% |
| ENG · League One | 73 | 23 | 31.5% |
| ENG · Championship | 65 | 16 | 24.6% |
| ENG · National League | 31 | 10 | 32.3% |
| Season | Matches | Draws | Draw % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026/27 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% |
| 2025/26 | 25 | 6 | 24.0% |
| 2024/25 | 28 | 8 | 28.6% |
| 2023/24 | 24 | 7 | 29.2% |
| 2022/23 | 22 | 5 | 22.7% |
| 2021/22 | 24 | 3 | 12.5% |
| 2020/21 | 26 | 8 | 30.8% |
| 2019/20 | 25 | 4 | 16.0% |
| 2018/19 | 17 | 3 | 17.6% |
| 2017/18 | 24 | 7 | 29.2% |
| 2016/17 | 18 | 5 | 27.8% |
| 2015/16 | 13 | 5 | 38.5% |
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 2026 | Middlesbrough | 2–2 | Cardiff City | D | ENG · Championship |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Blackburn Rovers | 2–1 | Cardiff City | H | ENG · Championship |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Norwich City | 3–4 | Bolton Wanderers | A | ENG · Championship |
| 09 Sep 2026 | Charlton Athletic | 0–0 | Queens Park Rangers | D | ENG · Championship |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 4–1 | Stoke City | H | ENG · Championship |
| 22 Aug 2026 | Swansea City | 0–0 | Sheffield United | D | ENG · Championship |
| 15 Aug 2026 | York City | 3–2 | Bristol Rovers | H | ENG · League Two |
| 02 May 2026 | Derby County | 1–2 | Sheffield United | A | ENG · Championship |
| 25 Apr 2026 | Charlton Athletic | 2–1 | Hull City | H | ENG · Championship |
| 18 Apr 2026 | Millwall | 2–0 | Queens Park Rangers | H | ENG · Championship |
| 03 Apr 2026 | Coventry City | 3–2 | Derby County | H | ENG · Championship |
| 13 Mar 2026 | Wrexham | 2–0 | Swansea City | H | ENG · Championship |
| 10 Mar 2026 | Leicester City | 2–0 | Bristol City | H | ENG · Championship |
| 07 Mar 2026 | Blackburn Rovers | 1–1 | Portsmouth | D | ENG · Championship |
| 28 Feb 2026 | Queens Park Rangers | 0–2 | Sheffield United | A | ENG · Championship |
| 06 Feb 2026 | Charlton Athletic | 0–0 | Queens Park Rangers | D | ENG · Championship |
| 30 Jan 2026 | Bristol City | 0–5 | Derby County | A | ENG · Championship |
| 24 Jan 2026 | Sheffield United | 3–1 | Ipswich Town | H | ENG · Championship |
| 17 Jan 2026 | Swansea City | 1–1 | Birmingham City | D | ENG · Championship |
| 01 Jan 2026 | Southampton | 0–0 | Millwall | D | ENG · Championship |
| 20 Dec 2025 | Queens Park Rangers | 4–1 | Leicester City | H | ENG · Championship |
| 06 Dec 2025 | Watford | 3–2 | Norwich City | H | ENG · Championship |
| 29 Nov 2025 | West Bromwich Albion | 3–2 | Swansea City | H | ENG · Championship |
| 25 Nov 2025 | Stoke City | 3–0 | Charlton Athletic | H | ENG · Championship |
| 08 Nov 2025 | Hull City | 3–2 | Portsmouth | H | ENG · Championship |
| 01 Nov 2025 | Leicester City | 0–2 | Blackburn Rovers | A | ENG · Championship |
| 18 Oct 2025 | Norwich City | 0–1 | Bristol City | A | ENG · Championship |
| 27 Sep 2025 | Wrexham | 1–1 | Derby County | D | ENG · Championship |
| 13 Sep 2025 | Sheffield Wednesday | 0–3 | Bristol City | A | ENG · Championship |
| 30 Aug 2025 | Blackpool | 1–1 | Bolton Wanderers | D | ENG · League One |
| 23 Aug 2025 | Hull City | 0–3 | Blackburn Rovers | A | ENG · Championship |
| 16 Aug 2025 | Millwall | 0–3 | Middlesbrough | A | ENG · Championship |
| 26 Apr 2025 | Cheltenham Town | 3–2 | Carlisle United | H | ENG · League Two |
| 21 Apr 2025 | Queens Park Rangers | 1–2 | Swansea City | A | ENG · Championship |
| 12 Apr 2025 | Millwall | 1–0 | Middlesbrough | H | ENG · Championship |
| 05 Apr 2025 | West Bromwich Albion | 0–1 | Sunderland | A | ENG · Championship |
| 01 Apr 2025 | Wycombe Wanderers | 0–0 | Shrewsbury Town | D | ENG · League One |
| 08 Mar 2025 | Burnley | 4–0 | Luton Town | H | ENG · Championship |
| 01 Mar 2025 | Stoke City | 0–0 | Watford | D | ENG · Championship |
| 21 Feb 2025 | Bristol City | 2–1 | Middlesbrough | H | ENG · Championship |
| 11 Feb 2025 | Portsmouth | 2–1 | Cardiff City | H | ENG · Championship |
| 08 Feb 2025 | West Bromwich Albion | 2–1 | Sheffield Wednesday | H | ENG · Championship |
| 01 Feb 2025 | Derby County | 0–1 | Sheffield United | A | ENG · Championship |
| 21 Jan 2025 | Watford | 1–2 | Preston North End | A | ENG · Championship |
| 18 Jan 2025 | Bolton Wanderers | 2–2 | Cambridge United | D | ENG · League One |
| 04 Jan 2025 | Middlesbrough | 1–1 | Cardiff City | D | ENG · Championship |
| 29 Dec 2024 | Wrexham | 2–1 | Wigan Athletic | H | ENG · League One |
| 26 Dec 2024 | Norwich City | 2–1 | Millwall | H | ENG · Championship |
| 14 Dec 2024 | Bromley | 0–0 | Port Vale | D | ENG · League Two |
| 10 Dec 2024 | Luton Town | 2–1 | Stoke City | H | ENG · Championship |