S Oldham
Over 286 matches (Nov 2016 – Oct 2026), S Oldham drew 66 where the draw model expected 78.4 from those particular fixtures — about 12 fewer, or 1.6 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 3 times running. A flat league average would have expected 77.2 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| Competition | Matches | Draws | Draw % |
|---|---|---|---|
| ENG · League One | 139 | 37 | 26.6% |
| ENG · League Two | 123 | 24 | 19.5% |
| ENG · National League | 21 | 2 | 9.5% |
| ENG · Championship | 3 | 3 | 100.0% |
| Season | Matches | Draws | Draw % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026/27 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% |
| 2025/26 | 34 | 10 | 29.4% |
| 2024/25 | 30 | 9 | 30.0% |
| 2023/24 | 33 | 6 | 18.2% |
| 2022/23 | 28 | 7 | 25.0% |
| 2021/22 | 28 | 5 | 17.9% |
| 2020/21 | 27 | 7 | 25.9% |
| 2019/20 | 26 | 7 | 26.9% |
| 2018/19 | 30 | 7 | 23.3% |
| 2017/18 | 24 | 4 | 16.7% |
| 2016/17 | 17 | 2 | 11.8% |
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct 2026 | Reading | 2–1 | Barnsley | H | ENG · League One |
| 17 Oct 2026 | Oldham Athletic | 4–1 | Cheltenham Town | H | ENG · League Two |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Wycombe Wanderers | 1–4 | Luton Town | A | ENG · League One |
| 03 Oct 2026 | Leyton Orient | 0–2 | Plymouth Argyle | A | ENG · League One |
| 26 Sep 2026 | York City | 3–0 | Gillingham | H | ENG · League Two |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Milton Keynes Dons | 1–1 | Peterborough United | D | ENG · League One |
| 01 Sep 2026 | Bradford City | 1–2 | Cambridge United | A | ENG · League One |
| 22 Aug 2026 | Salford City | 0–1 | Chesterfield | A | ENG · League Two |
| 15 Aug 2026 | Northampton Town | 0–0 | Swindon Town | D | ENG · League Two |
| 02 May 2026 | Swindon Town | 1–2 | Chesterfield | A | ENG · League Two |
| 25 Apr 2026 | Lincoln City | 4–3 | Wycombe Wanderers | H | ENG · League One |
| 18 Apr 2026 | Barrow | 1–3 | Walsall | A | ENG · League Two |
| 11 Apr 2026 | Bristol Rovers | 3–1 | Crawley Town | H | ENG · League Two |
| 06 Apr 2026 | Tranmere Rovers | 0–1 | Colchester United | A | ENG · League Two |
| 21 Mar 2026 | Stevenage | 1–0 | Reading | H | ENG · League One |
| 17 Mar 2026 | Stockport County | 2–1 | Northampton Town | H | ENG · League One |
| 10 Mar 2026 | Wigan Athletic | 0–3 | Plymouth Argyle | A | ENG · League One |
| 03 Mar 2026 | Rotherham United | 0–0 | Mansfield Town | D | ENG · League One |
| 21 Feb 2026 | Harrogate Town | 0–0 | Bromley | D | ENG · League Two |
| 17 Feb 2026 | Oldham Athletic | 2–0 | Bristol Rovers | H | ENG · League Two |
| 07 Feb 2026 | Bolton Wanderers | 3–2 | Barnsley | H | ENG · League One |
| 31 Jan 2026 | Carlisle United | 3–1 | Altrincham | H | ENG · National League |
| 27 Jan 2026 | Walsall | 0–0 | Crawley Town | D | ENG · League Two |
| 17 Jan 2026 | Luton Town | 2–2 | Lincoln City | D | ENG · League One |
| 10 Jan 2026 | Leyton Orient | 1–1 | Cardiff City | D | ENG · League One |
| 29 Dec 2025 | Bradford City | 1–0 | Port Vale | H | ENG · League One |
| 26 Dec 2025 | Braintree Town | 0–1 | Southend United | A | ENG · National League |
| 20 Dec 2025 | Stevenage | 2–2 | Burton Albion | D | ENG · League One |
| 13 Dec 2025 | Salford City | 4–3 | Colchester United | H | ENG · League Two |
| 29 Nov 2025 | Huddersfield Town | 3–3 | AFC Wimbledon | D | ENG · League One |
| 22 Nov 2025 | Barrow | 0–2 | Cambridge United | A | ENG · League Two |
| 15 Nov 2025 | Notts County | 1–1 | Harrogate Town | D | ENG · League Two |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Tranmere Rovers | 1–1 | Chesterfield | D | ENG · League Two |
| 18 Oct 2025 | Rotherham United | 1–0 | Leyton Orient | H | ENG · League One |
| 11 Oct 2025 | Bristol Rovers | 0–4 | Milton Keynes Dons | A | ENG · League Two |
| 01 Oct 2025 | Rochdale | 1–2 | Halifax Town | A | ENG · National League |
| 27 Sep 2025 | Northampton Town | 2–0 | Bolton Wanderers | H | ENG · League One |
| 20 Sep 2025 | Barrow | 1–0 | Crewe Alexandra | H | ENG · League Two |
| 13 Sep 2025 | Bradford City | 3–1 | Huddersfield Town | H | ENG · League One |
| 06 Sep 2025 | Wycombe Wanderers | 2–0 | Mansfield Town | H | ENG · League One |
| 30 Aug 2025 | Cardiff City | 4–0 | Plymouth Argyle | H | ENG · League One |
| 16 Aug 2025 | Burton Albion | 0–0 | Port Vale | D | ENG · League One |
| 09 Aug 2025 | Peterborough United | 0–2 | Luton Town | A | ENG · League One |
| 18 Apr 2025 | Colchester United | 0–0 | Crewe Alexandra | D | ENG · League Two |
| 08 Apr 2025 | Huddersfield Town | 0–1 | Wycombe Wanderers | A | ENG · League One |
| 05 Apr 2025 | Stevenage | 3–1 | Crawley Town | H | ENG · League One |
| 29 Mar 2025 | Doncaster Rovers | 3–0 | Carlisle United | H | ENG · League Two |
| 22 Mar 2025 | Port Vale | 1–0 | Morecambe | H | ENG · League Two |
| 11 Mar 2025 | Grimsby Town | 0–2 | Notts County | A | ENG · League Two |
| 08 Mar 2025 | Peterborough United | 1–1 | Wycombe Wanderers | D | ENG · League One |