Mn Atkinson
Over 558 matches (Aug 2003 – May 2022), Mn Atkinson drew 127 where the draw model expected 142.9 from those particular fixtures — about 16 fewer, or 1.5 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 3 times running. A flat league average would have expected 144.4 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| Competition | Matches | Draws | Draw % |
|---|---|---|---|
| ENG · Premier League | 461 | 104 | 22.6% |
| ENG · Championship | 49 | 9 | 18.4% |
| ENG · League One | 25 | 8 | 32.0% |
| ENG · League Two | 23 | 6 | 26.1% |
| Season | Matches | Draws | Draw % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 26 | 4 | 15.4% |
| 2020/21 | 27 | 4 | 14.8% |
| 2019/20 | 32 | 7 | 21.9% |
| 2018/19 | 29 | 8 | 27.6% |
| 2017/18 | 29 | 7 | 24.1% |
| 2016/17 | 27 | 7 | 25.9% |
| 2015/16 | 29 | 10 | 34.5% |
| 2014/15 | 32 | 11 | 34.4% |
| 2013/14 | 30 | 6 | 20.0% |
| 2012/13 | 23 | 4 | 17.4% |
| 2011/12 | 27 | 5 | 18.5% |
| 2010/11 | 29 | 7 | 24.1% |
| 2009/10 | 32 | 6 | 18.8% |
| 2008/09 | 32 | 7 | 21.9% |
| 2007/08 | 30 | 6 | 20.0% |
| 2006/07 | 35 | 6 | 17.1% |
| 2005/06 | 33 | 8 | 24.2% |
| 2004/05 | 31 | 7 | 22.6% |
| 2003/04 | 25 | 7 | 28.0% |
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 May 2022 | Crystal Palace | 1–0 | Manchester United | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 17 May 2022 | Southampton | 1–2 | Liverpool | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 11 May 2022 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1–5 | Manchester City | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 23 Apr 2022 | Brentford | 0–0 | Tottenham Hotspur | D | ENG · Premier League |
| 19 Apr 2022 | Liverpool | 4–0 | Manchester United | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 10 Apr 2022 | Brentford | 2–0 | West Ham United | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 03 Apr 2022 | Tottenham Hotspur | 5–1 | Newcastle United | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 14 Mar 2022 | Crystal Palace | 0–0 | Manchester City | D | ENG · Premier League |
| 10 Mar 2022 | Norwich City | 1–3 | Chelsea | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 05 Mar 2022 | Newcastle United | 2–1 | Brighton & Hove Albion | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 24 Feb 2022 | Arsenal | 2–1 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 13 Feb 2022 | Burnley | 0–1 | Liverpool | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 08 Feb 2022 | West Ham United | 1–0 | Watford | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 23 Jan 2022 | Leicester City | 1–1 | Brighton & Hove Albion | D | ENG · Premier League |
| 26 Dec 2021 | Aston Villa | 1–3 | Chelsea | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 19 Dec 2021 | Newcastle United | 0–4 | Manchester City | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 02 Dec 2021 | Manchester United | 3–2 | Arsenal | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 20 Nov 2021 | Norwich City | 2–1 | Southampton | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 01 Nov 2021 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2–1 | Everton | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 16 Oct 2021 | Manchester City | 2–0 | Burnley | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 02 Oct 2021 | Chelsea | 3–1 | Southampton | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 19 Sep 2021 | West Ham United | 1–2 | Manchester United | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 13 Sep 2021 | Everton | 3–1 | Burnley | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 28 Aug 2021 | Manchester City | 5–0 | Arsenal | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 21 Aug 2021 | Crystal Palace | 0–0 | Brentford | D | ENG · Premier League |
| 15 Aug 2021 | Newcastle United | 2–4 | West Ham United | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 23 May 2021 | West Ham United | 3–0 | Southampton | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 16 May 2021 | Tottenham Hotspur | 2–0 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 13 May 2021 | Aston Villa | 0–0 | Everton | D | ENG · Premier League |
| 08 May 2021 | Middlesbrough | 0–3 | Wycombe Wanderers | A | ENG · Championship |
| 14 Mar 2021 | Manchester United | 1–0 | West Ham United | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 07 Mar 2021 | West Bromwich Albion | 0–0 | Newcastle United | D | ENG · Premier League |
| 04 Mar 2021 | Liverpool | 0–1 | Chelsea | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 01 Mar 2021 | Everton | 1–0 | Southampton | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 20 Feb 2021 | Fulham | 1–0 | Sheffield United | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 07 Feb 2021 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0–0 | Leicester City | D | ENG · Premier League |
| 03 Feb 2021 | Burnley | 0–2 | Manchester City | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 28 Jan 2021 | Tottenham Hotspur | 1–3 | Liverpool | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 20 Jan 2021 | Fulham | 1–2 | Manchester United | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 12 Jan 2021 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1–2 | Everton | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 02 Jan 2021 | West Bromwich Albion | 0–4 | Arsenal | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 29 Dec 2020 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 0–1 | Arsenal | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 20 Dec 2020 | West Bromwich Albion | 0–3 | Aston Villa | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 13 Dec 2020 | Leicester City | 3–0 | Brighton & Hove Albion | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 06 Dec 2020 | Tottenham Hotspur | 2–0 | Arsenal | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 22 Nov 2020 | Sheffield United | 0–1 | West Ham United | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 08 Nov 2020 | Arsenal | 0–3 | Aston Villa | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 30 Oct 2020 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2–0 | Crystal Palace | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 24 Oct 2020 | Manchester United | 0–0 | Chelsea | D | ENG · Premier League |
| 04 Oct 2020 | Aston Villa | 7–2 | Liverpool | H | ENG · Premier League |