K Stroud
Over 595 matches (Aug 2004 – Aug 2024), K Stroud drew 155 where the draw model expected 165.0 from those particular fixtures — about 10 fewer, or 0.9 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 162.3 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| Competition | Matches | Draws | Draw % |
|---|---|---|---|
| ENG · Championship | 377 | 95 | 25.2% |
| ENG · League One | 107 | 31 | 29.0% |
| ENG · League Two | 94 | 24 | 25.5% |
| ENG · Premier League | 17 | 5 | 29.4% |
| Season | Matches | Draws | Draw % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% |
| 2023/24 | 30 | 8 | 26.7% |
| 2022/23 | 37 | 9 | 24.3% |
| 2021/22 | 30 | 11 | 36.7% |
| 2020/21 | 35 | 8 | 22.9% |
| 2019/20 | 25 | 5 | 20.0% |
| 2018/19 | 26 | 11 | 42.3% |
| 2017/18 | 33 | 9 | 27.3% |
| 2016/17 | 31 | 7 | 22.6% |
| 2015/16 | 39 | 8 | 20.5% |
| 2014/15 | 34 | 1 | 2.9% |
| 2013/14 | 30 | 8 | 26.7% |
| 2011/12 | 34 | 6 | 17.6% |
| 2010/11 | 30 | 16 | 53.3% |
| 2009/10 | 25 | 5 | 20.0% |
| 2008/09 | 30 | 11 | 36.7% |
| 2007/08 | 33 | 10 | 30.3% |
| 2006/07 | 32 | 4 | 12.5% |
| 2005/06 | 33 | 11 | 33.3% |
| 2004/05 | 25 | 6 | 24.0% |
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Aug 2024 | Oxford United | 3–1 | Preston North End | H | ENG · Championship |
| 24 Aug 2024 | Wigan Athletic | 1–0 | Crawley Town | H | ENG · League One |
| 10 Aug 2024 | Hull City | 1–1 | Bristol City | D | ENG · Championship |
| 04 May 2024 | Middlesbrough | 3–1 | Watford | H | ENG · Championship |
| 27 Apr 2024 | Barrow | 1–1 | Mansfield Town | D | ENG · League Two |
| 20 Apr 2024 | Rotherham United | 0–0 | Birmingham City | D | ENG · Championship |
| 10 Apr 2024 | Swansea City | 3–0 | Stoke City | H | ENG · Championship |
| 01 Apr 2024 | Plymouth Argyle | 0–1 | Bristol City | A | ENG · Championship |
| 16 Mar 2024 | Middlesbrough | 0–0 | Blackburn Rovers | D | ENG · Championship |
| 12 Mar 2024 | Crawley Town | 2–1 | Notts County | H | ENG · League Two |
| 05 Mar 2024 | Hull City | 1–1 | Birmingham City | D | ENG · Championship |
| 24 Feb 2024 | Sunderland | 1–2 | Swansea City | A | ENG · Championship |
| 20 Feb 2024 | Ipswich Town | 4–3 | Rotherham United | H | ENG · Championship |
| 14 Feb 2024 | Plymouth Argyle | 2–2 | Coventry City | D | ENG · Championship |
| 30 Jan 2024 | Leicester City | 3–1 | Swansea City | H | ENG · Championship |
| 13 Jan 2024 | Rotherham United | 0–1 | Stoke City | A | ENG · Championship |
| 01 Jan 2024 | Leeds United | 3–0 | Birmingham City | H | ENG · Championship |
| 26 Dec 2023 | Southampton | 5–0 | Swansea City | H | ENG · Championship |
| 16 Dec 2023 | Hull City | 3–0 | Cardiff City | H | ENG · Championship |
| 13 Dec 2023 | Leicester City | 3–2 | Millwall | H | ENG · Championship |
| 29 Nov 2023 | Southampton | 1–0 | Bristol City | H | ENG · Championship |
| 25 Nov 2023 | Bradford City | 1–0 | Accrington Stanley | H | ENG · League Two |
| 28 Oct 2023 | Watford | 2–2 | Millwall | D | ENG · Championship |
| 28 Oct 2023 | Hull City | 1–0 | Preston North End | H | ENG · Championship |
| 24 Oct 2023 | Leicester City | 1–0 | Sunderland | H | ENG · Championship |
| 07 Oct 2023 | Leeds United | 2–1 | Bristol City | H | ENG · Championship |
| 03 Oct 2023 | Morecambe | 1–1 | Accrington Stanley | D | ENG · League Two |
| 23 Sep 2023 | Ipswich Town | 4–3 | Blackburn Rovers | H | ENG · Championship |
| 16 Sep 2023 | Watford | 2–0 | Birmingham City | H | ENG · Championship |
| 02 Sep 2023 | Leyton Orient | 0–3 | Stevenage | A | ENG · League One |
| 26 Aug 2023 | Coventry City | 0–0 | Sunderland | D | ENG · Championship |
| 12 Aug 2023 | Millwall | 0–1 | Bristol City | A | ENG · Championship |
| 05 Aug 2023 | Norwich City | 2–1 | Hull City | H | ENG · Championship |
| 08 May 2023 | Swansea City | 3–2 | West Bromwich Albion | H | ENG · Championship |
| 01 May 2023 | Rotherham United | 1–0 | Middlesbrough | H | ENG · Championship |
| 22 Apr 2023 | Birmingham City | 0–1 | Blackpool | A | ENG · Championship |
| 19 Apr 2023 | Queens Park Rangers | 1–1 | Norwich City | D | ENG · Championship |
| 10 Apr 2023 | Coventry City | 2–2 | Watford | D | ENG · Championship |
| 07 Apr 2023 | Sunderland | 4–4 | Hull City | D | ENG · Championship |
| 01 Apr 2023 | Cardiff City | 2–3 | Swansea City | A | ENG · Championship |
| 18 Mar 2023 | Queens Park Rangers | 0–1 | Birmingham City | A | ENG · Championship |
| 15 Mar 2023 | Huddersfield Town | 1–1 | Norwich City | D | ENG · Championship |
| 11 Mar 2023 | Milton Keynes Dons | 1–0 | Cambridge United | H | ENG · League One |
| 04 Mar 2023 | Middlesbrough | 5–0 | Reading | H | ENG · Championship |
| 25 Feb 2023 | Sheffield United | 1–0 | Watford | H | ENG · Championship |
| 18 Feb 2023 | Rotherham United | 0–2 | Coventry City | A | ENG · Championship |
| 15 Feb 2023 | Bristol City | 1–1 | Wigan Athletic | D | ENG · Championship |
| 04 Feb 2023 | Norwich City | 0–3 | Burnley | A | ENG · Championship |
| 14 Jan 2023 | Sunderland | 1–3 | Swansea City | A | ENG · Championship |
| 30 Dec 2022 | Stoke City | 0–1 | Burnley | A | ENG · Championship |