Gr Horwood
Over 234 matches (Aug 2005 – Apr 2018), Gr Horwood drew 74 where the draw model expected 64.8 from those particular fixtures — about 9 more, or 1.3 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 63.1 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| Competition | Matches | Draws | Draw % |
|---|---|---|---|
| ENG · League Two | 99 | 30 | 30.3% |
| ENG · League One | 84 | 26 | 31.0% |
| ENG · National League | 31 | 8 | 25.8% |
| ENG · Championship | 20 | 10 | 50.0% |
| Season | Matches | Draws | Draw % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017/18 | 22 | 7 | 31.8% |
| 2016/17 | 26 | 7 | 26.9% |
| 2015/16 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% |
| 2014/15 | 25 | 12 | 48.0% |
| 2013/14 | 24 | 6 | 25.0% |
| 2011/12 | 9 | 6 | 66.7% |
| 2010/11 | 23 | 7 | 30.4% |
| 2009/10 | 24 | 9 | 37.5% |
| 2008/09 | 30 | 10 | 33.3% |
| 2007/08 | 20 | 5 | 25.0% |
| 2006/07 | 13 | 1 | 7.7% |
| 2005/06 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% |
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Apr 2018 | Peterborough United | 2–0 | Fleetwood Town | H | ENG · League One |
| 02 Apr 2018 | Charlton Athletic | 3–1 | Rotherham United | H | ENG · League One |
| 24 Mar 2018 | Milton Keynes Dons | 0–0 | Blackpool | D | ENG · League One |
| 21 Mar 2018 | Crawley Town | 2–3 | Wycombe Wanderers | A | ENG · League Two |
| 10 Mar 2018 | Stevenage | 2–2 | Crewe Alexandra | D | ENG · League Two |
| 06 Mar 2018 | Cheltenham Town | 1–1 | Notts County | D | ENG · League Two |
| 01 Jan 2018 | Newport County | 2–1 | Exeter City | H | ENG · League Two |
| 23 Dec 2017 | AFC Wimbledon | 2–1 | Bradford City | H | ENG · League One |
| 25 Nov 2017 | Gillingham | 0–0 | Oldham Athletic | D | ENG · League One |
| 21 Nov 2017 | Colchester United | 1–0 | Lincoln City | H | ENG · League Two |
| 18 Nov 2017 | Plymouth Argyle | 0–4 | Oxford United | A | ENG · League One |
| 11 Nov 2017 | Cambridge United | 0–0 | Accrington Stanley | D | ENG · League Two |
| 28 Oct 2017 | Port Vale | 0–3 | Swindon Town | A | ENG · League Two |
| 14 Oct 2017 | Portsmouth | 2–0 | Milton Keynes Dons | H | ENG · League One |
| 30 Sep 2017 | Shrewsbury Town | 2–0 | Scunthorpe United | H | ENG · League One |
| 26 Sep 2017 | Southend United | 1–0 | AFC Wimbledon | H | ENG · League One |
| 23 Sep 2017 | Northampton Town | 0–1 | Bradford City | A | ENG · League One |
| 16 Sep 2017 | Grimsby Town | 2–1 | Yeovil Town | H | ENG · League Two |
| 12 Sep 2017 | Barnet | 1–2 | Exeter City | A | ENG · League Two |
| 09 Sep 2017 | Colchester United | 3–1 | Crawley Town | H | ENG · League Two |
| 26 Aug 2017 | Cambridge United | 0–0 | Morecambe | D | ENG · League Two |
| 05 Aug 2017 | Wycombe Wanderers | 2–2 | Lincoln City | D | ENG · League Two |
| 29 Apr 2017 | Yeovil Town | 1–1 | Stevenage | D | ENG · League Two |
| 22 Apr 2017 | Wycombe Wanderers | 2–1 | Doncaster Rovers | H | ENG · League Two |
| 17 Apr 2017 | Plymouth Argyle | 6–1 | Newport County | H | ENG · League Two |
| 14 Apr 2017 | Milton Keynes Dons | 0–1 | Scunthorpe United | A | ENG · League One |
| 08 Apr 2017 | Portsmouth | 3–1 | Yeovil Town | H | ENG · League Two |
| 05 Apr 2017 | Oxford United | 1–3 | Fleetwood Town | A | ENG · League One |
| 25 Mar 2017 | Coventry City | 1–0 | Bristol Rovers | H | ENG · League One |
| 18 Mar 2017 | Crewe Alexandra | 2–0 | Colchester United | H | ENG · League Two |
| 14 Feb 2017 | Gillingham | 1–1 | Chesterfield | D | ENG · League One |
| 04 Feb 2017 | Leyton Orient | 1–2 | Carlisle United | A | ENG · League Two |
| 14 Jan 2017 | Northampton Town | 1–2 | Scunthorpe United | A | ENG · League One |
| 31 Dec 2016 | Stevenage | 2–4 | Colchester United | A | ENG · League Two |
| 26 Dec 2016 | Peterborough United | 1–1 | Gillingham | D | ENG · League One |
| 17 Dec 2016 | Portsmouth | 0–0 | Hartlepool United | D | ENG · League Two |
| 26 Nov 2016 | Swindon Town | 1–0 | Bradford City | H | ENG · League One |
| 22 Nov 2016 | Millwall | 0–0 | AFC Wimbledon | D | ENG · League One |
| 29 Oct 2016 | AFC Wimbledon | 2–3 | Bradford City | A | ENG · League One |
| 22 Oct 2016 | Wycombe Wanderers | 0–2 | Barnet | A | ENG · League Two |
| 15 Oct 2016 | Cheltenham Town | 2–1 | Crawley Town | H | ENG · League Two |
| 01 Oct 2016 | Northampton Town | 2–3 | Bristol Rovers | A | ENG · League One |
| 27 Sep 2016 | Southend United | 2–1 | Oxford United | H | ENG · League One |
| 24 Sep 2016 | Colchester United | 1–2 | Accrington Stanley | A | ENG · League Two |
| 17 Sep 2016 | Wycombe Wanderers | 1–0 | Stevenage | H | ENG · League Two |
| 10 Sep 2016 | Peterborough United | 2–2 | Port Vale | D | ENG · League One |
| 03 Sep 2016 | Yeovil Town | 0–3 | Blackpool | A | ENG · League Two |
| 06 Aug 2016 | Cambridge United | 1–1 | Barnet | D | ENG · League Two |
| 30 Jan 2016 | Crawley Town | 0–1 | Mansfield Town | A | ENG · League Two |
| 23 Jan 2016 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 2–1 | Huddersfield Town | H | ENG · Championship |