Swindon Town
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 565 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), Swindon Town drew 133 where the draw model expected 152.5 from those particular fixtures — about 19 fewer, or 1.8 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 4 times running. A flat league average would have expected 152.5 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | 29 Nov 2025 → 21 Feb 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 19 | 17 Dec 2011 → 20 Mar 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 19 | 09 Apr 2011 → 30 Sep 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 17 | 27 Feb 2021 → 07 Aug 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 17 | 25 Sep 1996 → 14 Dec 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 15 | 19 Aug 2017 → 05 Nov 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 14 | 19 Feb 2000 → 29 Apr 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 13 | 02 Aug 2025 → 18 Oct 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 13 | 18 Nov 2017 → 30 Jan 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 13 | 14 Sep 2013 → 23 Nov 2013 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| League One | 782 | 215 | 27.5% | 16 | 16 |
| League Two | 458 | 110 | 24.0% | 0 | 17 |
| FA Cup | 310 | 56 | 18.1% | 2 | 5 |
| Championship | 230 | 54 | 23.5% | 0 | 15 |
| League Cup | 190 | 42 | 22.1% | 1 | 5 |
| Premier League | 42 | 15 | 35.7% | 4 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 3 |
| FA Community Shield | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 36 | 7 | 19.4% | 12 |
| 2025 | 49 | 13 | 26.5% | 13 |
| 2024 | 47 | 17 | 36.2% | 9 |
| 2023 | 49 | 12 | 24.5% | 7 |
| 2022 | 52 | 12 | 23.1% | 11 |
| 2021 | 50 | 10 | 20.0% | 17 |
| 2020 | 34 | 4 | 11.8% | 11 |
| 2019 | 48 | 12 | 25.0% | 7 |
| 2018 | 50 | 15 | 30.0% | 10 |
| 2017 | 49 | 7 | 14.3% | 15 |
| 2016 | 51 | 15 | 29.4% | 5 |
| 2015 | 50 | 9 | 18.0% | 10 |
| 2014 | 49 | 10 | 20.4% | 12 |
| 2013 | 50 | 12 | 24.0% | 13 |
| 2012 | 53 | 8 | 15.1% | 16 |
| 2011 | 53 | 11 | 20.8% | 19 |
| 2010 | 49 | 17 | 34.7% | 7 |
| 2009 | 49 | 18 | 36.7% | 10 |
| 2008 | 51 | 17 | 33.3% | 7 |
| 2007 | 47 | 11 | 23.4% | 9 |
| 2006 | 49 | 12 | 24.5% | 13 |
| 2005 | 50 | 17 | 34.0% | 10 |
| 2004 | 51 | 12 | 23.5% | 9 |
| 2003 | 49 | 14 | 28.6% | 9 |
| 2002 | 50 | 14 | 28.0% | 5 |
| 2001 | 52 | 16 | 30.8% | 5 |
| 2000 | 50 | 10 | 20.0% | 14 |
| 1999 | 50 | 16 | 32.0% | 6 |
| 1998 | 50 | 11 | 22.0% | 8 |
| 1997 | 49 | 12 | 24.5% | 9 |
| 1996 | 58 | 13 | 22.4% | 17 |
| 1995 | 54 | 12 | 22.2% | 10 |
| 1994 | 51 | 16 | 31.4% | 8 |
| 1993 | 27 | 9 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1992 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1991 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1990 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 1989 | 11 | 6 | 54.6% | 2 |
| 1988 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1987 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1986 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1985 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1984 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1983 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1982 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1981 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1980 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1979 | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1978 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1977 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 3 |
| 1976 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1975 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 2 |
| 1974 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1973 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1972 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1971 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1970 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1969 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1968 | 15 | 3 | 20.0% | 5 |
| 1967 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1966 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1965 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1964 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1963 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 1962 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1961 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1960 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1959 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1958 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1957 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1956 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1955 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1954 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1953 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1952 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1951 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1950 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1949 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1948 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1947 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1946 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1945 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1938 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1937 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1936 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1935 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1934 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1933 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1932 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1931 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1930 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 |
| 1929 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1928 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1927 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1926 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1925 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1924 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1923 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1922 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1921 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1920 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1915 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1914 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1913 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1912 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1911 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1910 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1909 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1908 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1906 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1887 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1886 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 03 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 03 Oct 14:00 |
Rochdale
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 26.7% |
|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 11:30 |
Swindon Town
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 17 Oct 14:00 |
Swindon Town
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
| Tue, 20 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 20 Oct 18:45 |
Barnet
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.0% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 11:30 |
Bristol Rovers
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.4% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 31 Oct 15:00 |
Swindon Town
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.0% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.