Penafiel
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 111 matches (Aug 2004 – Sep 2026), Penafiel drew 23 where the draw model expected 27.8 from those particular fixtures — about 5 fewer, or 1.1 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 27.8 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 03 Apr 2005 → 12 Sep 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 11 | 28 Nov 2004 → 19 Feb 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 7 | 04 Oct 2014 → 13 Dec 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 7 | 26 Sep 2004 → 13 Nov 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 6 | 08 Feb 2015 → 15 Mar 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 6 | 04 Dec 2005 → 15 Jan 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 5 | 17 Aug 2014 → 20 Sep 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 5 | 29 Jan 2006 → 26 Feb 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 4 | 15 Apr 2006 → 07 May 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 3 | 09 May 2015 → 22 May 2015 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primeira Liga | 102 | 20 | 19.6% | 3 | 11 |
| Taça de Portugal | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 1 | 2 |
| Club Friendlies | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2024 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2023 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2022 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2021 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2015 | 20 | 5 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 2014 | 14 | 2 | 14.3% | 7 |
| 2006 | 18 | 5 | 27.8% | 5 |
| 2005 | 35 | 6 | 17.1% | 11 |
| 2004 | 15 | 2 | 13.3% | 7 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 18 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 18 Oct 14:00 |
Penafiel
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vs |
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– / – / – | 20.9% |
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Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.