SC Paderborn 07
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 4 Oct 2026.
Over 444 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), SC Paderborn 07 drew 108 where the draw model expected 112.0 from those particular fixtures — about 4 fewer, or 0.4 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 118.5 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20 | 29 Jul 2017 → 09 Dec 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 15 | 29 Apr 2016 → 14 Oct 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 15 | 02 May 2015 → 23 Sep 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 14 | 04 Mar 2007 → 17 Aug 2007 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 11 | 27 Nov 2012 → 15 Mar 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 28 Oct 2023 → 21 Jan 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 10 | 07 Aug 2005 → 21 Oct 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 30 Oct 2022 → 17 Feb 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 06 May 2022 → 20 Aug 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 06 Aug 2021 → 07 Oct 2021 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2. Bundesliga | 544 | 148 | 27.2% | 1 | 13 |
| 3. Liga | 114 | 24 | 21.1% | 2 | 18 |
| Bundesliga | 72 | 19 | 26.4% | 3 | 8 |
| DFB-Pokal | 41 | 6 | 14.6% | 1 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 1 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26 | 7 | 26.9% | 4 |
| 2025 | 37 | 7 | 18.9% | 7 |
| 2024 | 36 | 11 | 30.6% | 8 |
| 2023 | 39 | 8 | 20.5% | 9 |
| 2022 | 36 | 9 | 25.0% | 9 |
| 2021 | 43 | 15 | 34.9% | 9 |
| 2020 | 33 | 9 | 27.3% | 6 |
| 2019 | 37 | 6 | 16.2% | 9 |
| 2018 | 39 | 13 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 2017 | 43 | 7 | 16.3% | 20 |
| 2016 | 35 | 8 | 22.9% | 15 |
| 2015 | 40 | 8 | 20.0% | 15 |
| 2014 | 33 | 10 | 30.3% | 4 |
| 2013 | 36 | 9 | 25.0% | 7 |
| 2012 | 35 | 9 | 25.7% | 8 |
| 2011 | 38 | 12 | 31.6% | 4 |
| 2010 | 35 | 6 | 17.1% | 9 |
| 2009 | 36 | 11 | 30.6% | 6 |
| 2008 | 38 | 8 | 21.1% | 9 |
| 2007 | 36 | 11 | 30.6% | 14 |
| 2006 | 36 | 13 | 36.1% | 9 |
| 2005 | 17 | 2 | 11.8% | 10 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 13:30 |
SC Paderborn 07
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.4% |
|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 17 Oct 13:30 |
Werder Bremen
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 26.7% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 13:30 |
SC Paderborn 07
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.4% |
|
| Wed, 28 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 28 Oct 17:00 |
SC Paderborn 07
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 18.2% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 31 Oct 14:30 |
M'gladbach
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.8% |
|
| Sat, 07 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 07 Nov 14:30 |
SC Paderborn 07
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.3% |
|
| Sat, 09 Jan 2027 | ||||||
| 09 Jan |
SC Paderborn 07
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.3% |
|
| Sat, 08 May 2027 | ||||||
| 08 May |
RB Leipzig
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 20.8% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.