Notts County
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 4 Oct 2026.
Over 561 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), Notts County drew 136 where the draw model expected 144.0 from those particular fixtures — about 8 fewer, or 0.8 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 148.8 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16 | 14 Oct 2023 → 01 Jan 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 16 | 24 Aug 2013 → 23 Nov 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 14 | 17 Feb 2026 → 25 Apr 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 14 | 05 Mar 2011 → 23 Apr 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 13 | 25 Sep 2010 → 14 Dec 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 13 | 09 Feb 1994 → 09 Apr 1994 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 12 | 27 Aug 2022 → 29 Oct 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 12 | 26 Dec 2013 → 01 Mar 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 12 | 04 Apr 2009 → 29 Aug 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 12 | 24 Aug 1993 → 20 Oct 1993 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| League Two | 644 | 171 | 26.6% | 0 | 14 |
| League One | 605 | 161 | 26.6% | 2 | 14 |
| FA Cup | 355 | 72 | 20.3% | 0 | 5 |
| National League | 171 | 43 | 25.2% | 0 | 12 |
| League Cup | 156 | 31 | 19.9% | 0 | 5 |
| Championship | 92 | 21 | 22.8% | 0 | 12 |
| Club Friendlies | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 0 | 3 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35 | 8 | 22.9% | 14 |
| 2025 | 49 | 12 | 24.5% | 7 |
| 2024 | 46 | 12 | 26.1% | 8 |
| 2023 | 50 | 8 | 16.0% | 15 |
| 2022 | 50 | 11 | 22.0% | 12 |
| 2021 | 50 | 14 | 28.0% | 7 |
| 2020 | 25 | 5 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 2019 | 50 | 15 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 2018 | 52 | 16 | 30.8% | 6 |
| 2017 | 51 | 13 | 25.5% | 8 |
| 2016 | 53 | 9 | 17.0% | 11 |
| 2015 | 50 | 13 | 26.0% | 9 |
| 2014 | 47 | 10 | 21.3% | 10 |
| 2013 | 50 | 11 | 22.0% | 16 |
| 2012 | 52 | 16 | 30.8% | 9 |
| 2011 | 56 | 12 | 21.4% | 14 |
| 2010 | 52 | 9 | 17.3% | 13 |
| 2009 | 48 | 12 | 25.0% | 12 |
| 2008 | 52 | 22 | 42.3% | 7 |
| 2007 | 46 | 13 | 28.3% | 7 |
| 2006 | 52 | 15 | 28.8% | 9 |
| 2005 | 51 | 16 | 31.4% | 9 |
| 2004 | 51 | 14 | 27.5% | 6 |
| 2003 | 51 | 12 | 23.5% | 9 |
| 2002 | 47 | 14 | 29.8% | 7 |
| 2001 | 55 | 20 | 36.4% | 7 |
| 2000 | 52 | 10 | 19.2% | 8 |
| 1999 | 55 | 16 | 29.1% | 9 |
| 1998 | 50 | 13 | 26.0% | 7 |
| 1997 | 56 | 19 | 33.9% | 6 |
| 1996 | 54 | 17 | 31.5% | 10 |
| 1995 | 50 | 15 | 30.0% | 9 |
| 1994 | 56 | 12 | 21.4% | 13 |
| 1993 | 27 | 3 | 11.1% | 12 |
| 1992 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1991 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1990 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1989 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1988 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1987 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1986 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1985 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1984 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 4 |
| 1983 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 2 |
| 1982 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1981 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1980 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1979 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1978 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1977 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1976 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 |
| 1975 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 2 |
| 1974 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1973 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1972 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1971 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1970 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1969 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1968 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1967 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1966 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1965 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1964 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1963 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1962 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1961 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1960 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1959 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1958 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1957 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1956 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1955 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1954 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1953 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1952 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1951 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1950 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1949 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1948 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1947 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 |
| 1946 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1945 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1939 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1938 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1936 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1935 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1934 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1933 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1932 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1931 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1930 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1929 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1928 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1927 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1926 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1925 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1924 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 1 |
| 1923 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1922 | 10 | 5 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1921 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1920 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1915 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1914 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1913 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1912 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1911 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1910 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1909 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1908 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1907 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1906 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1905 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1904 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1903 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1902 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1901 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1900 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1899 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1898 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1897 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1896 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1895 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1894 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1893 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1892 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1891 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1890 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1889 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1887 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1886 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1885 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1884 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1883 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1882 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1881 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1880 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1879 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1878 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1877 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 11:30 |
Notts County
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.0% |
|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 17 Oct 14:00 |
Wycombe Wanderers
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.4% |
|
| Tue, 20 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 20 Oct 18:45 |
Notts County
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.4% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 14:00 |
Notts County
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.9% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 31 Oct 15:00 |
Mansfield Town
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.9% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.