What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 30 Sep 2026.
Over 180 matches (Jan 2015 – Aug 2026), NAC Breda drew 45 where the draw model expected 37.0 from those particular fixtures — about 8 more, or 1.5 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 3 times running. A flat league average would have expected 40.5 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16 | 16 Aug 2009 → 27 Oct 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 16 | 05 Feb 1995 → 28 May 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 14 | 23 Sep 2010 → 15 Dec 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 14 | 28 Feb 2009 → 05 Aug 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 14 | 16 Jan 2008 → 18 Mar 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 13 | 09 Aug 2024 → 09 Nov 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 11 | 30 Mar 2008 → 18 Oct 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 11 | 08 Apr 2007 → 26 Sep 2007 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 11 | 27 Dec 2006 → 03 Mar 2007 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 11 | 03 May 2003 → 31 Aug 2003 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eredivisie | 850 | 219 | 25.8% | 0 | 16 |
| KNVB Cup | 49 | 7 | 14.3% | 1 | 5 |
| UEFA Europa League | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 | 6 |
| Club Friendlies | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 2 | 2 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 1 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19 | 7 | 36.8% | 4 |
| 2025 | 38 | 13 | 34.2% | 6 |
| 2024 | 18 | 1 | 5.6% | 13 |
| 2023 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 2022 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2021 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2020 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2019 | 19 | 6 | 31.6% | 3 |
| 2018 | 34 | 6 | 17.7% | 9 |
| 2017 | 19 | 4 | 21.1% | 7 |
| 2016 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2015 | 18 | 6 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2014 | 36 | 11 | 30.6% | 9 |
| 2013 | 36 | 8 | 22.2% | 6 |
| 2012 | 37 | 11 | 29.7% | 7 |
| 2011 | 34 | 6 | 17.7% | 10 |
| 2010 | 39 | 9 | 23.1% | 14 |
| 2009 | 46 | 9 | 19.6% | 16 |
| 2008 | 38 | 4 | 10.5% | 14 |
| 2007 | 37 | 6 | 16.2% | 11 |
| 2006 | 38 | 10 | 26.3% | 9 |
| 2005 | 34 | 7 | 20.6% | 9 |
| 2004 | 35 | 12 | 34.3% | 5 |
| 2003 | 36 | 8 | 22.2% | 11 |
| 2002 | 31 | 13 | 41.9% | 4 |
| 2001 | 36 | 11 | 30.6% | 6 |
| 2000 | 17 | 3 | 17.7% | 6 |
| 1999 | 16 | 7 | 43.8% | 4 |
| 1998 | 32 | 6 | 18.8% | 7 |
| 1997 | 34 | 10 | 29.4% | 11 |
| 1996 | 37 | 7 | 18.9% | 10 |
| 1995 | 35 | 9 | 25.7% | 16 |
| 1994 | 34 | 13 | 38.2% | 6 |
| 1993 | 16 | 2 | 12.5% | 8 |
| 1973 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1967 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed, 28 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 28 Oct 19:00 |
JOS Watergraafsmeer
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 16.0% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.