Manchester United
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 694 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), Manchester United drew 164 where the draw model expected 162.5 from those particular fixtures — about 2 more, or 0.1 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 169.5 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 34 | 30 Apr 2023 → 26 Nov 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 28 | 30 Apr 2012 → 15 Dec 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 19 | 22 Oct 1997 → 31 Jan 1998 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 18 | 25 Nov 2001 → 10 Feb 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 17 | 18 Dec 2008 → 21 Feb 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 17 | 14 Jan 2006 → 09 Apr 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 17 | 26 Sep 2000 → 06 Dec 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 17 | 29 Sep 1999 → 26 Dec 1999 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 16 | 18 Oct 2017 → 20 Dec 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 16 | 04 Dec 2013 → 01 Feb 2014 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1267 | 279 | 22.0% | 0 | 23 |
| FA Cup | 463 | 106 | 22.9% | 1 | 6 |
| UEFA Champions League | 298 | 71 | 23.8% | 1 | 17 |
| League Cup | 219 | 34 | 15.5% | 1 | 6 |
| UEFA Europa League | 91 | 27 | 29.7% | 3 | 8 |
| Club Friendlies | 48 | 12 | 25.0% | 1 | 7 |
| FA Community Shield | 32 | 12 | 37.5% | 0 | 1 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 31 | 10 | 32.3% | 0 | 5 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 3 | 3 |
| FIFA Club World Cup | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 | 2 |
| UEFA Super Cup | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Intercontinental Cup (Toyota Cup) | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34 | 10 | 29.4% | 5 |
| 2025 | 56 | 20 | 35.7% | 8 |
| 2024 | 58 | 15 | 25.9% | 10 |
| 2023 | 73 | 9 | 12.3% | 34 |
| 2022 | 55 | 12 | 21.8% | 12 |
| 2021 | 66 | 19 | 28.8% | 8 |
| 2020 | 57 | 11 | 19.3% | 10 |
| 2019 | 58 | 13 | 22.4% | 12 |
| 2018 | 55 | 11 | 20.0% | 12 |
| 2017 | 67 | 17 | 25.4% | 16 |
| 2016 | 62 | 13 | 21.0% | 7 |
| 2015 | 53 | 14 | 26.4% | 14 |
| 2014 | 46 | 10 | 21.7% | 8 |
| 2013 | 55 | 13 | 23.6% | 8 |
| 2012 | 51 | 3 | 5.9% | 28 |
| 2011 | 63 | 10 | 15.9% | 11 |
| 2010 | 54 | 13 | 24.1% | 12 |
| 2009 | 65 | 8 | 12.3% | 13 |
| 2008 | 60 | 16 | 26.7% | 9 |
| 2007 | 59 | 11 | 18.6% | 13 |
| 2006 | 54 | 7 | 13.0% | 17 |
| 2005 | 60 | 15 | 25.0% | 11 |
| 2004 | 59 | 15 | 25.4% | 8 |
| 2003 | 57 | 8 | 14.0% | 13 |
| 2002 | 62 | 11 | 17.7% | 11 |
| 2001 | 55 | 11 | 20.0% | 11 |
| 2000 | 60 | 12 | 20.0% | 17 |
| 1999 | 62 | 15 | 24.2% | 17 |
| 1998 | 55 | 20 | 36.4% | 5 |
| 1997 | 54 | 12 | 22.2% | 14 |
| 1996 | 53 | 10 | 18.9% | 12 |
| 1995 | 52 | 14 | 26.9% | 9 |
| 1994 | 63 | 14 | 22.2% | 8 |
| 1993 | 35 | 8 | 22.9% | 12 |
| 1992 | 12 | 6 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1991 | 22 | 7 | 31.8% | 5 |
| 1990 | 17 | 4 | 23.5% | 8 |
| 1989 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1988 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1987 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1986 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1985 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1984 | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 1983 | 22 | 5 | 22.7% | 9 |
| 1982 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 2 |
| 1981 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1980 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1979 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 1978 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1977 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 4 |
| 1976 | 17 | 3 | 17.7% | 8 |
| 1975 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1974 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1973 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1972 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% | 2 |
| 1971 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1970 | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 1969 | 18 | 6 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1968 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 4 |
| 1967 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1966 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1965 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1964 | 20 | 5 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1963 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 7 |
| 1962 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1961 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1960 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1959 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1958 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1957 | 15 | 1 | 6.7% | 8 |
| 1956 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1955 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1954 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1953 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1952 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1951 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1950 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1949 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 1948 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1947 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1946 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1939 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1938 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1937 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1936 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1935 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1934 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1933 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1932 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1931 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1930 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1929 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1928 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1927 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1926 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1925 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1924 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1923 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1922 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1921 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1920 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1915 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1914 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1913 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1912 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1911 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1910 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1909 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1908 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1907 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1906 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1904 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1903 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1901 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1899 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1898 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1897 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1896 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1895 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1894 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1893 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1890 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.