What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 5 Oct 2026.
Over 703 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), Manchester City drew 108 where the draw model expected 131.9 from those particular fixtures — about 24 fewer, or 2.3 standard errors, more of a gap than most, though roughly one subject in twenty looks like this by chance.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 6 times running. A flat league average would have expected 170.4 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50 | 19 Dec 2020 → 15 Sep 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 30 | 11 Feb 2015 → 21 Oct 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 28 | 21 Jan 2020 → 30 Sep 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 21 | 02 Mar 2011 → 10 Sep 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 20 | 01 Mar 2009 → 20 Sep 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 19 | 29 Mar 2008 → 20 Sep 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 18 | 05 Oct 2025 → 27 Dec 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 18 | 27 Feb 2019 → 27 Jul 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 17 | 30 Oct 2021 → 15 Jan 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 17 | 17 Sep 2013 → 04 Dec 2013 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1077 | 227 | 21.1% | 6 | 31 |
| FA Cup | 396 | 74 | 18.7% | 6 | 6 |
| League Cup | 245 | 46 | 18.8% | 1 | 7 |
| Championship | 184 | 39 | 21.2% | 5 | 10 |
| UEFA Champions League | 148 | 29 | 19.6% | 1 | 15 |
| UEFA Europa League | 52 | 13 | 25.0% | 4 | 8 |
| League One | 46 | 16 | 34.8% | 1 | 7 |
| Club Friendlies | 22 | 3 | 13.6% | 1 | 3 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 18 | 3 | 16.7% | 12 | 12 |
| FA Community Shield | 17 | 3 | 17.7% | 1 | 1 |
| FIFA Club World Cup | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 0 | 3 |
| UEFA Super Cup | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43 | 9 | 20.9% | 9 |
| 2025 | 61 | 7 | 11.5% | 18 |
| 2024 | 61 | 13 | 21.3% | 10 |
| 2023 | 68 | 11 | 16.2% | 15 |
| 2022 | 58 | 12 | 20.7% | 8 |
| 2021 | 70 | 3 | 4.3% | 47 |
| 2020 | 52 | 7 | 13.5% | 28 |
| 2019 | 62 | 6 | 9.7% | 18 |
| 2018 | 57 | 6 | 10.5% | 15 |
| 2017 | 59 | 12 | 20.3% | 12 |
| 2016 | 60 | 16 | 26.7% | 10 |
| 2015 | 52 | 6 | 11.5% | 30 |
| 2014 | 57 | 10 | 17.5% | 9 |
| 2013 | 52 | 5 | 9.6% | 17 |
| 2012 | 53 | 12 | 22.6% | 9 |
| 2011 | 58 | 9 | 15.5% | 21 |
| 2010 | 56 | 15 | 26.8% | 9 |
| 2009 | 44 | 10 | 22.7% | 20 |
| 2008 | 56 | 12 | 21.4% | 19 |
| 2007 | 46 | 11 | 23.9% | 11 |
| 2006 | 45 | 6 | 13.3% | 15 |
| 2005 | 40 | 12 | 30.0% | 6 |
| 2004 | 46 | 16 | 34.8% | 7 |
| 2003 | 45 | 11 | 24.4% | 10 |
| 2002 | 46 | 5 | 10.9% | 12 |
| 2001 | 49 | 11 | 22.5% | 10 |
| 2000 | 48 | 13 | 27.1% | 13 |
| 1999 | 53 | 11 | 20.8% | 9 |
| 1998 | 54 | 18 | 33.3% | 8 |
| 1997 | 51 | 14 | 27.5% | 8 |
| 1996 | 50 | 11 | 22.0% | 11 |
| 1995 | 48 | 14 | 29.2% | 6 |
| 1994 | 49 | 16 | 32.7% | 6 |
| 1993 | 32 | 11 | 34.4% | 5 |
| 1992 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1991 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 3 |
| 1990 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1989 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1988 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1987 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1986 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1985 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1984 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 1983 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1982 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1981 | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 1980 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1979 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1978 | 17 | 5 | 29.4% | 4 |
| 1977 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% | 3 |
| 1976 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 1975 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 1974 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 3 |
| 1973 | 13 | 6 | 46.2% | 2 |
| 1972 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 1971 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1970 | 18 | 2 | 11.1% | 13 |
| 1969 | 18 | 3 | 16.7% | 7 |
| 1968 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1967 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 2 |
| 1966 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1965 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1964 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1963 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1962 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1961 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1960 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1959 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1958 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1957 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1956 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 1955 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1954 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1953 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1952 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1951 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1950 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1949 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1948 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1947 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1946 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1939 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1938 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1937 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1936 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1935 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1934 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 1933 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 1932 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1931 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1930 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1929 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1928 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1927 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1926 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 1925 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1924 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 2 |
| 1923 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1922 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1921 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1920 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1915 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1914 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1913 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1912 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1911 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1910 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1909 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1908 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1907 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1906 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1905 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1904 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1903 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1902 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1901 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1900 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1899 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1898 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1897 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.