What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 492 matches (Feb 2015 – Sep 2026), Luzern drew 119 where the draw model expected 116.0 from those particular fixtures — about 3 more, or 0.3 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 120.4 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | 26 Sep 2019 → 16 Feb 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 14 | 28 Oct 2015 → 12 Mar 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 14 | 09 Mar 2014 → 18 May 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 13 | 22 Oct 2017 → 11 Feb 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 11 | 10 Apr 2019 → 20 Jul 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 11 | 20 Sep 2018 → 10 Nov 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 10 | 17 Dec 2023 → 10 Mar 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 10 | 26 Feb 2023 → 30 Apr 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 10 | 11 Mar 2018 → 09 May 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 10 | 08 May 2013 → 04 Aug 2013 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super League | 520 | 134 | 25.8% | 2 | 15 |
| Swiss Cup | 323 | 58 | 18.0% | 4 | 9 |
| UEFA Europa League | 22 | 6 | 27.3% | 4 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 | 4 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 4 |
| UEFA Champions League | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35 | 8 | 22.9% | 9 |
| 2025 | 44 | 11 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 2024 | 40 | 11 | 27.5% | 9 |
| 2023 | 42 | 12 | 28.6% | 10 |
| 2022 | 39 | 12 | 30.8% | 5 |
| 2021 | 47 | 16 | 34.0% | 5 |
| 2020 | 34 | 9 | 26.5% | 5 |
| 2019 | 45 | 6 | 13.3% | 13 |
| 2018 | 41 | 6 | 14.6% | 11 |
| 2017 | 44 | 12 | 27.3% | 10 |
| 2016 | 41 | 7 | 17.1% | 7 |
| 2015 | 40 | 9 | 22.5% | 9 |
| 2014 | 42 | 11 | 26.2% | 14 |
| 2013 | 40 | 11 | 27.5% | 10 |
| 2012 | 24 | 8 | 33.3% | 7 |
| 2011 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2010 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 2009 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 2008 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2007 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 2006 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2005 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2004 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2003 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2002 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 2001 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2000 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1999 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1997 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1996 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 |
| 1995 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1994 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1993 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1992 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 6 |
| 1991 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1990 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1989 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1988 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1987 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1986 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1985 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1984 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1983 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1982 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1981 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1980 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1979 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1978 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1977 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1976 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1975 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1974 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1973 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1972 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1971 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1970 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1969 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1968 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1967 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1966 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1965 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1964 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1963 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1962 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1961 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1960 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1959 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1958 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1957 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1956 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1955 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1954 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 |
| 1953 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1952 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1951 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1950 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1949 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1948 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1947 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1946 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1945 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1944 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1943 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1942 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1941 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1940 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1939 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1937 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1936 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1935 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1934 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1933 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1932 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1931 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1930 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1929 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1928 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1927 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1926 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1925 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 03 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 03 Oct 11:00 |
SC Freiburg
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 11.1% | ITL · Club Friendlies |
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.