What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 2 Oct 2026.
Over 102 matches (Oct 2015 – Oct 2026), Kosovo drew 23 where the draw model expected 22.4 from those particular fixtures — about 1 more, or 0.1 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 23.6 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | 06 Oct 2016 → 29 May 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 11 | 11 Nov 2020 → 02 Sep 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 8 | 21 Nov 2023 → 15 Oct 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 8 | 10 Jun 2019 → 12 Jan 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 7 | 18 Nov 2024 → 08 Sep 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 6 | 26 Mar 2026 → 27 Sep 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 6 | 02 Jun 2022 → 27 Sep 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 4 | 08 Sep 2021 → 10 Nov 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 3 | 12 Sep 2023 → 12 Nov 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 3 | 06 Sep 2020 → 11 Oct 2020 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 33 | 6 | 18.2% | 2 | 6 |
| UEFA Nations League | 29 | 6 | 20.7% | 0 | 6 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 26 | 5 | 19.2% | 2 | 9 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 19 | 7 | 36.8% | 1 | 6 |
| KTFF 50th Anniversary Cup | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 2025 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 2024 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 7 |
| 2023 | 10 | 5 | 50.0% | 3 |
| 2022 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 6 |
| 2021 | 14 | 2 | 14.3% | 8 |
| 2020 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 3 |
| 2019 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 7 |
| 2018 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 3 |
| 2017 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 2016 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 2015 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2014 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2006 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2005 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 04 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 04 Oct 16:00 | Kosovo | vs | Austria | – / – / – | 27.4% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.