Kelty Hearts
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 235 matches (Sep 2015 – Sep 2026), Kelty Hearts drew 59 where the draw model expected 54.1 from those particular fixtures — about 5 more, or 0.8 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 51.6 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 14 Jul 2026 → 19 Sep 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 11 | 13 Feb 2024 → 13 Apr 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 10 | 26 Jul 2025 → 07 Oct 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 10 | 25 Jan 2022 → 12 Mar 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 27 Aug 2022 → 29 Oct 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 30 Apr 2022 → 13 Aug 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 6 | 22 Nov 2025 → 27 Dec 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 6 | 14 Sep 2024 → 26 Oct 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 6 | 12 Nov 2022 → 24 Dec 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 6 | 09 Jul 2021 → 07 Aug 2021 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish League One | 144 | 40 | 27.8% | 4 | 11 |
| Scottish League Two | 44 | 9 | 20.5% | 8 | 9 |
| Scottish League Cup | 28 | 5 | 17.9% | 3 | 4 |
| Scottish Cup | 19 | 5 | 26.3% | 1 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31 | 10 | 32.3% | 11 |
| 2025 | 41 | 10 | 24.4% | 10 |
| 2024 | 44 | 10 | 22.7% | 11 |
| 2023 | 38 | 12 | 31.6% | 5 |
| 2022 | 46 | 10 | 21.7% | 10 |
| 2021 | 25 | 5 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 2020 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 2019 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2018 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2015 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.