Fortuna Düsseldorf
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 4 Oct 2026.
Over 434 matches (Feb 2015 – Sep 2026), Fortuna Düsseldorf drew 105 where the draw model expected 112.0 from those particular fixtures — about 7 fewer, or 0.8 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 115.6 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18 | 21 Feb 2026 → 28 Aug 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 18 | 02 May 2010 → 05 Dec 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 18 | 25 Feb 1998 → 09 Aug 1998 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 16 | 26 Aug 2022 → 03 Feb 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 12 | 06 Feb 2019 → 27 Apr 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 19 Aug 2017 → 24 Oct 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 10 | 07 Oct 2013 → 22 Dec 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 10 | 30 Nov 2012 → 23 Feb 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 10 | 15 Sep 1997 → 30 Nov 1997 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 09 Nov 2025 → 01 Feb 2026 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2. Bundesliga | 578 | 158 | 27.3% | 12 | 18 |
| Bundesliga | 170 | 48 | 28.2% | 1 | 11 |
| 3. Liga | 45 | 10 | 22.2% | 3 | 7 |
| DFB-Pokal | 39 | 10 | 25.6% | 1 | 3 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 15 | 7 | 46.7% | 1 | 2 |
| UEFA Europa League | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 5 | 5 |
| Club Friendlies | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27 | 3 | 11.1% | 18 |
| 2025 | 38 | 8 | 21.1% | 7 |
| 2024 | 38 | 12 | 31.6% | 7 |
| 2023 | 39 | 10 | 25.6% | 7 |
| 2022 | 35 | 8 | 22.9% | 13 |
| 2021 | 41 | 11 | 26.8% | 6 |
| 2020 | 34 | 12 | 35.3% | 7 |
| 2019 | 38 | 6 | 15.8% | 12 |
| 2018 | 37 | 5 | 13.5% | 9 |
| 2017 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 10 |
| 2016 | 34 | 10 | 29.4% | 6 |
| 2015 | 36 | 10 | 27.8% | 7 |
| 2014 | 35 | 14 | 40.0% | 5 |
| 2013 | 37 | 7 | 18.9% | 10 |
| 2012 | 35 | 15 | 42.9% | 4 |
| 2011 | 39 | 11 | 28.2% | 5 |
| 2010 | 35 | 6 | 17.1% | 18 |
| 2009 | 36 | 9 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 2008 | 20 | 4 | 20.0% | 7 |
| 1999 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 5 |
| 1998 | 36 | 10 | 27.8% | 18 |
| 1997 | 34 | 9 | 26.5% | 10 |
| 1996 | 34 | 12 | 35.3% | 6 |
| 1995 | 34 | 16 | 47.1% | 6 |
| 1994 | 17 | 4 | 23.5% | 9 |
| 1981 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1980 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1979 | 7 | 4 | 57.1% | 2 |
| 1978 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1974 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1973 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.