What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 4 Oct 2026.
Over 125 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), Finland drew 22 where the draw model expected 27.2 from those particular fixtures — about 5 fewer, or 1.1 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 28.9 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. 1 of the matches carry no model probability and are left out. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21 | 26 Mar 2018 → 18 Nov 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 15 | 09 Jan 2023 → 04 Jun 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 15 | 11 Oct 2003 → 01 Dec 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 12 | 15 Oct 1986 → 19 May 1988 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 11 | 11 Oct 2008 → 05 Sep 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 27 May 1994 → 15 Feb 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 10 | 08 Dec 1980 → 23 Sep 1981 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 07 Jun 2025 → 27 Mar 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 10 Jan 2002 → 16 Oct 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 09 Mar 1984 → 20 Nov 1984 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 343 | 77 | 22.5% | 2 | 8 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 145 | 26 | 17.9% | 6 | 7 |
| Nordic Championship | 134 | 24 | 17.9% | 1 | 3 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 125 | 24 | 19.2% | 11 | 11 |
| UEFA Nations League | 27 | 3 | 11.1% | 1 | 6 |
| Cyprus International Tournament | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 0 | 2 |
| King's Cup | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 2 | 2 |
| Nehru Cup | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 | 3 |
| Malta International Tournament | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 0 | 2 |
| Prime Minister's Cup | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 0 | 1 |
| Baltic Cup | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Olympic Games | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 3 |
| UEFA European Championship | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 3 |
| Dunhill Cup | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 3 |
| Four Nations Tournament | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| FIFA Series | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 0 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 2025 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 8 |
| 2024 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 6 |
| 2023 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 12 |
| 2022 | 10 | 5 | 50.0% | 3 |
| 2021 | 15 | 3 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 2020 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 2019 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 12 |
| 2018 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 9 |
| 2017 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 2016 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 4 |
| 2015 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 2014 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 3 |
| 2013 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 2012 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 2011 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 7 |
| 2010 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 5 |
| 2009 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 8 |
| 2008 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 3 |
| 2007 | 10 | 5 | 50.0% | 4 |
| 2006 | 12 | 6 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 2005 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 8 |
| 2004 | 13 | 1 | 7.7% | 12 |
| 2003 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 7 |
| 2002 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 9 |
| 2001 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 6 |
| 2000 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 4 |
| 1999 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 3 |
| 1998 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1997 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 1996 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 1995 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 7 |
| 1994 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 9 |
| 1993 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 4 |
| 1992 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 3 |
| 1991 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1990 | 9 | 5 | 55.6% | 2 |
| 1989 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 5 |
| 1988 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% | 5 |
| 1987 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1986 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 3 |
| 1985 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 1984 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 9 |
| 1983 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1982 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 6 |
| 1981 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 9 |
| 1980 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 4 |
| 1979 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1978 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1977 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1976 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 9 |
| 1975 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1974 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1973 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1972 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1971 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1970 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1969 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1968 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1967 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 1966 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1965 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1964 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1963 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1962 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1961 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1960 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1959 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1958 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1957 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 9 |
| 1956 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1955 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1954 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1953 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1952 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1951 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1950 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1949 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1948 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1947 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1946 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1945 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1943 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1941 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1940 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1939 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1938 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1937 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1936 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1935 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1934 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1933 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1932 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1931 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1930 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1929 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1928 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1927 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1926 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1925 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 1924 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1923 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1922 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1921 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1920 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1919 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1914 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1912 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1911 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, 06 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 06 Oct 18:45 | Belarus | vs | Finland | – / – / – | 28.1% |
|
| Thu, 12 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 12 Nov 19:45 | Albania | vs | Finland | – / – / – | 27.4% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.