Erzgebirge Aue
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 4 Oct 2026.
Over 400 matches (Feb 2015 – Sep 2026), Erzgebirge Aue drew 102 where the draw model expected 110.5 from those particular fixtures — about 8 fewer, or 0.9 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 108.8 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | 03 May 2013 → 02 Nov 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 15 | 10 Mar 2006 → 17 Sep 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 14 | 15 Feb 2025 → 10 May 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 11 | 28 Jan 2007 → 16 Apr 2007 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 11 | 03 Oct 2004 → 12 Dec 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 22 Aug 2009 → 24 Oct 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 26 May 2020 → 19 Sep 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 12 Dec 2010 → 28 Feb 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 08 Feb 2004 → 04 Apr 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 8 | 22 Feb 2026 → 07 Apr 2026 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2. Bundesliga | 544 | 140 | 25.7% | 3 | 16 |
| 3. Liga | 228 | 63 | 27.6% | 1 | 14 |
| DFB-Pokal | 26 | 4 | 15.4% | 1 | 3 |
| UEFA Champions League | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 3 | 3 |
| Regionalliga Nordost | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 1 | 4 |
| UEFA Europa League | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 | 2 |
| Club Friendlies | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33 | 9 | 27.3% | 8 |
| 2025 | 39 | 10 | 25.6% | 14 |
| 2024 | 39 | 8 | 20.5% | 6 |
| 2023 | 20 | 7 | 35.0% | 6 |
| 2022 | 17 | 3 | 17.7% | 6 |
| 2021 | 40 | 9 | 22.5% | 6 |
| 2020 | 30 | 7 | 23.3% | 9 |
| 2019 | 36 | 8 | 22.2% | 7 |
| 2018 | 36 | 9 | 25.0% | 8 |
| 2017 | 36 | 10 | 27.8% | 8 |
| 2016 | 35 | 10 | 28.6% | 7 |
| 2015 | 39 | 12 | 30.8% | 6 |
| 2014 | 36 | 10 | 27.8% | 7 |
| 2013 | 35 | 8 | 22.9% | 17 |
| 2012 | 36 | 9 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 2011 | 39 | 12 | 30.8% | 8 |
| 2010 | 34 | 8 | 23.5% | 7 |
| 2009 | 40 | 10 | 25.0% | 10 |
| 2008 | 38 | 14 | 36.8% | 7 |
| 2007 | 35 | 9 | 25.7% | 11 |
| 2006 | 36 | 5 | 13.9% | 15 |
| 2005 | 34 | 10 | 29.4% | 7 |
| 2004 | 34 | 7 | 20.6% | 11 |
| 2003 | 17 | 7 | 41.2% | 4 |
| 1987 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1985 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1960 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1959 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1958 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1957 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.