Elgin City
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 476 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), Elgin City drew 94 where the draw model expected 104.8 from those particular fixtures — about 11 fewer, or 1.2 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 101.8 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25 | 23 Apr 2016 → 17 Dec 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 23 | 14 Mar 2006 → 28 Oct 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 22 | 01 Feb 2025 → 09 Aug 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 22 | 11 Aug 2018 → 19 Jan 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 22 | 13 Mar 2010 → 25 Sep 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 20 | 11 Nov 2006 → 31 Mar 2007 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 16 | 28 Oct 2023 → 10 Feb 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 16 | 10 Oct 2020 → 23 Mar 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 16 | 02 Apr 2011 → 01 Oct 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 16 | 17 Apr 2004 → 16 Oct 2004 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish League Two | 923 | 198 | 21.5% | 5 | 22 |
| Scottish League Cup | 60 | 2 | 3.3% | 4 | 4 |
| Scottish Cup | 58 | 9 | 15.5% | 2 | 3 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33 | 8 | 24.2% | 6 |
| 2025 | 43 | 8 | 18.6% | 22 |
| 2024 | 43 | 14 | 32.6% | 9 |
| 2023 | 43 | 7 | 16.3% | 9 |
| 2022 | 42 | 9 | 21.4% | 12 |
| 2021 | 37 | 8 | 21.6% | 8 |
| 2020 | 24 | 0 | 0.0% | 14 |
| 2019 | 43 | 11 | 25.6% | 9 |
| 2018 | 43 | 5 | 11.6% | 19 |
| 2017 | 43 | 12 | 27.9% | 8 |
| 2016 | 41 | 5 | 12.2% | 25 |
| 2015 | 41 | 7 | 17.1% | 12 |
| 2014 | 40 | 11 | 27.5% | 6 |
| 2013 | 39 | 9 | 23.1% | 10 |
| 2012 | 43 | 11 | 25.6% | 7 |
| 2011 | 40 | 9 | 22.5% | 16 |
| 2010 | 40 | 4 | 10.0% | 22 |
| 2009 | 39 | 9 | 23.1% | 10 |
| 2008 | 39 | 7 | 18.0% | 10 |
| 2007 | 36 | 4 | 11.1% | 13 |
| 2006 | 40 | 2 | 5.0% | 23 |
| 2005 | 39 | 11 | 28.2% | 9 |
| 2004 | 38 | 5 | 13.2% | 16 |
| 2003 | 36 | 9 | 25.0% | 8 |
| 2002 | 40 | 12 | 30.0% | 7 |
| 2001 | 38 | 7 | 18.4% | 9 |
| 2000 | 18 | 5 | 27.8% | 4 |
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.