MSV Duisburg
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 368 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), MSV Duisburg drew 94 where the draw model expected 99.1 from those particular fixtures — about 5 fewer, or 0.6 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 100.2 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20 | 07 May 2007 → 02 Dec 2007 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 18 | 14 Jan 2022 → 07 May 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 15 | 08 May 2021 → 16 Oct 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 15 | 01 Mar 2011 → 30 Jul 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 13 | 13 Aug 2010 → 06 Nov 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 13 | 15 Feb 2004 → 09 May 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 12 | 21 Sep 2019 → 08 Dec 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 12 | 01 Dec 2000 → 18 Mar 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 11 | 10 Jan 2021 → 13 Mar 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 11 | 23 May 2004 → 27 Oct 2004 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2. Bundesliga | 510 | 143 | 28.0% | 3 | 13 |
| 3. Liga | 311 | 83 | 26.7% | 7 | 18 |
| Bundesliga | 272 | 73 | 26.8% | 4 | 15 |
| DFB-Pokal | 33 | 3 | 9.1% | 1 | 8 |
| UEFA Europa League | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 1 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 0 | 1 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Niederrheinpokal | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29 | 5 | 17.2% | 9 |
| 2025 | 20 | 7 | 35.0% | 7 |
| 2024 | 18 | 3 | 16.7% | 9 |
| 2023 | 20 | 7 | 35.0% | 4 |
| 2022 | 19 | 1 | 5.3% | 18 |
| 2021 | 41 | 6 | 14.6% | 15 |
| 2020 | 36 | 14 | 38.9% | 6 |
| 2019 | 39 | 9 | 23.1% | 12 |
| 2018 | 37 | 9 | 24.3% | 6 |
| 2017 | 38 | 11 | 29.0% | 5 |
| 2016 | 35 | 14 | 40.0% | 5 |
| 2015 | 36 | 8 | 22.2% | 10 |
| 2014 | 41 | 16 | 39.0% | 5 |
| 2013 | 37 | 14 | 37.8% | 7 |
| 2012 | 36 | 7 | 19.4% | 6 |
| 2011 | 41 | 9 | 22.0% | 15 |
| 2010 | 37 | 7 | 18.9% | 13 |
| 2009 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 10 |
| 2008 | 36 | 12 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 2007 | 36 | 5 | 13.9% | 20 |
| 2006 | 37 | 14 | 37.8% | 4 |
| 2005 | 34 | 8 | 23.5% | 8 |
| 2004 | 34 | 5 | 14.7% | 13 |
| 2003 | 34 | 11 | 32.4% | 6 |
| 2002 | 33 | 9 | 27.3% | 6 |
| 2001 | 34 | 11 | 32.4% | 8 |
| 2000 | 35 | 8 | 22.9% | 6 |
| 1999 | 33 | 10 | 30.3% | 7 |
| 1998 | 34 | 15 | 44.1% | 6 |
| 1997 | 37 | 9 | 24.3% | 8 |
| 1996 | 32 | 7 | 21.9% | 8 |
| 1995 | 36 | 13 | 36.1% | 6 |
| 1994 | 31 | 4 | 12.9% | 10 |
| 1993 | 20 | 7 | 35.0% | 8 |
| 1978 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 3 |
| 1975 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 14:30 |
MSV Duisburg
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 20.8% |
|
| Tue, 13 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 13 Oct 17:00 |
1. FC Saarbrücken
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
| Sun, 18 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 18 Oct 14:30 |
MSV Duisburg
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 26.7% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 12:00 |
FC Ingolstadt 04
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.4% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 31 Oct 13:00 |
MSV Duisburg
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 19.5% |
|
| Sat, 07 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 07 Nov 15:30 |
Preußen Münster
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
| Sat, 14 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 14 Nov 13:00 |
SG Sonnenhof Großaspach
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
| Sun, 22 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 22 Nov 18:30 |
MSV Duisburg
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.4% |
|
| Sat, 28 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 28 Nov 15:30 |
SG Sonnenhof Großaspach
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
| Sat, 05 Dec 2026 | ||||||
| 05 Dec 13:00 |
MSV Duisburg
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.4% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.