Borussia Dortmund
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 2 Oct 2026.
Over 638 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), Borussia Dortmund drew 125 where the draw model expected 127.5 from those particular fixtures — about 3 fewer, or 0.3 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 153.1 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39 | 03 Apr 2021 → 07 Dec 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 26 | 11 Jan 2020 → 22 Aug 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 18 | 20 Oct 2015 → 30 Jan 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 18 | 30 Mar 2007 → 05 Oct 2007 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 17 | 25 Feb 2026 → 09 Aug 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 17 | 28 Aug 2020 → 28 Nov 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 15 | 05 Nov 2022 → 07 Mar 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 15 | 28 Sep 2013 → 11 Dec 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 15 | 04 Dec 1996 → 12 Apr 1997 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 14 | 08 May 2010 → 20 Oct 2010 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bundesliga | 1126 | 274 | 24.3% | 15 | 27 |
| UEFA Champions League | 208 | 41 | 19.7% | 1 | 15 |
| UEFA Europa League | 93 | 18 | 19.4% | 0 | 12 |
| DFB-Pokal | 80 | 16 | 20.0% | 1 | 7 |
| Club Friendlies | 68 | 13 | 19.1% | 0 | 7 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 1 | 4 |
| DFL-Supercup | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 1 | 1 |
| FIFA Club World Cup | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 | 4 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 | 4 |
| UEFA Super Cup | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 0 | 1 |
| Intercontinental Cup (Toyota Cup) | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35 | 3 | 8.6% | 17 |
| 2025 | 59 | 13 | 22.0% | 8 |
| 2024 | 54 | 13 | 24.1% | 10 |
| 2023 | 55 | 13 | 23.6% | 12 |
| 2022 | 49 | 8 | 16.3% | 13 |
| 2021 | 59 | 6 | 10.2% | 39 |
| 2020 | 52 | 4 | 7.7% | 26 |
| 2019 | 53 | 12 | 22.6% | 13 |
| 2018 | 55 | 16 | 29.1% | 7 |
| 2017 | 63 | 14 | 22.2% | 9 |
| 2016 | 49 | 15 | 30.6% | 8 |
| 2015 | 55 | 8 | 14.5% | 16 |
| 2014 | 50 | 8 | 16.0% | 11 |
| 2013 | 52 | 8 | 15.4% | 15 |
| 2012 | 47 | 11 | 23.4% | 10 |
| 2011 | 44 | 12 | 27.3% | 8 |
| 2010 | 44 | 8 | 18.2% | 14 |
| 2009 | 38 | 12 | 31.6% | 9 |
| 2008 | 42 | 16 | 38.1% | 5 |
| 2007 | 36 | 4 | 11.1% | 18 |
| 2006 | 36 | 14 | 38.9% | 4 |
| 2005 | 34 | 10 | 29.4% | 7 |
| 2004 | 34 | 9 | 26.5% | 9 |
| 2003 | 44 | 13 | 29.5% | 9 |
| 2002 | 44 | 11 | 25.0% | 12 |
| 2001 | 48 | 15 | 31.3% | 7 |
| 2000 | 35 | 9 | 25.7% | 7 |
| 1999 | 45 | 15 | 33.3% | 9 |
| 1998 | 38 | 12 | 31.6% | 6 |
| 1997 | 49 | 9 | 18.4% | 13 |
| 1996 | 42 | 12 | 28.6% | 7 |
| 1995 | 40 | 12 | 30.0% | 6 |
| 1994 | 41 | 8 | 19.5% | 11 |
| 1993 | 28 | 9 | 32.1% | 8 |
| 1992 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 12 |
| 1990 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1989 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1987 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1982 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1966 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 3 |
| 1965 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1964 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 1963 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1958 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1957 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1956 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.