What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 273 matches (Jan 2015 – Aug 2026), Catania drew 72 where the draw model expected 83.1 from those particular fixtures — about 11 fewer, or 1.5 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 3 times running. A flat league average would have expected 81.7 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15 | 02 Sep 2017 → 01 Dec 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 14 | 21 Mar 2009 → 13 Sep 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 14 | 05 Nov 2002 → 07 Feb 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 13 | 16 Mar 2014 → 23 Aug 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 12 | 04 Aug 2019 → 20 Oct 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 03 Mar 2021 → 25 Apr 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 15 Apr 2018 → 06 Oct 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 27 Mar 2004 → 22 May 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 26 Apr 2003 → 11 Sep 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 8 | 30 Mar 2025 → 14 Sep 2025 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie A | 304 | 90 | 29.6% | 11 | 13 |
| Serie C | 240 | 64 | 26.7% | 0 | 15 |
| Serie B | 210 | 62 | 29.5% | 0 | 14 |
| Coppa Italia | 38 | 6 | 15.8% | 1 | 4 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21 | 9 | 42.9% | 4 |
| 2025 | 35 | 10 | 28.6% | 8 |
| 2024 | 38 | 12 | 31.6% | 8 |
| 2023 | 19 | 4 | 21.1% | 6 |
| 2021 | 20 | 5 | 25.0% | 10 |
| 2020 | 28 | 9 | 32.1% | 5 |
| 2019 | 31 | 5 | 16.1% | 12 |
| 2018 | 38 | 9 | 23.7% | 9 |
| 2017 | 20 | 2 | 10.0% | 15 |
| 2015 | 23 | 7 | 30.4% | 7 |
| 2014 | 45 | 10 | 22.2% | 13 |
| 2013 | 38 | 11 | 29.0% | 6 |
| 2012 | 43 | 13 | 30.2% | 5 |
| 2011 | 40 | 11 | 27.5% | 8 |
| 2010 | 42 | 15 | 35.7% | 4 |
| 2009 | 41 | 9 | 22.0% | 14 |
| 2008 | 44 | 14 | 31.8% | 7 |
| 2007 | 40 | 13 | 32.5% | 6 |
| 2006 | 39 | 10 | 25.6% | 6 |
| 2005 | 45 | 16 | 35.6% | 6 |
| 2004 | 44 | 14 | 31.8% | 9 |
| 2003 | 42 | 11 | 26.2% | 9 |
| 2002 | 16 | 3 | 18.8% | 8 |
