Burnley
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 4 Oct 2026.
Over 550 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), Burnley drew 151 where the draw model expected 141.8 from those particular fixtures — about 9 more, or 0.9 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 140.9 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21 | 27 Sep 2011 → 14 Jan 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 19 | 05 Oct 2019 → 25 Jan 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 16 | 22 Oct 2022 → 20 Jan 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 14 | 22 Oct 2004 → 03 Jan 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 14 | 23 Apr 1996 → 17 Sep 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 13 | 23 Sep 2023 → 05 Dec 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 13 | 24 Apr 2001 → 22 Sep 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 12 | 23 Sep 2025 → 13 Dec 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 12 | 13 Mar 2021 → 21 Aug 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 12 | 27 Sep 2005 → 26 Nov 2005 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Championship | 790 | 226 | 28.6% | 0 | 19 |
| Premier League | 380 | 95 | 25.0% | 0 | 17 |
| FA Cup | 360 | 84 | 23.3% | 2 | 6 |
| League One | 276 | 76 | 27.5% | 8 | 12 |
| League Cup | 196 | 40 | 20.4% | 0 | 6 |
| Club Friendlies | 24 | 7 | 29.2% | 1 | 5 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 1 | 4 |
| UEFA Europa League | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 0 | 2 |
| UEFA Champions League | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 | 4 |
| FA Community Shield | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 37 | 15 | 40.5% | 5 |
| 2025 | 49 | 12 | 24.5% | 12 |
| 2024 | 44 | 16 | 36.4% | 7 |
| 2023 | 51 | 10 | 19.6% | 13 |
| 2022 | 51 | 14 | 27.5% | 12 |
| 2021 | 45 | 15 | 33.3% | 12 |
| 2020 | 38 | 11 | 29.0% | 6 |
| 2019 | 41 | 7 | 17.1% | 13 |
| 2018 | 49 | 12 | 24.5% | 8 |
| 2017 | 46 | 14 | 30.4% | 9 |
| 2016 | 48 | 11 | 22.9% | 9 |
| 2015 | 51 | 14 | 27.5% | 6 |
| 2014 | 44 | 14 | 31.8% | 5 |
| 2013 | 49 | 15 | 30.6% | 9 |
| 2012 | 51 | 15 | 29.4% | 9 |
| 2011 | 55 | 9 | 16.4% | 18 |
| 2010 | 45 | 10 | 22.2% | 10 |
| 2009 | 48 | 14 | 29.2% | 9 |
| 2008 | 53 | 12 | 22.6% | 7 |
| 2007 | 49 | 16 | 32.7% | 9 |
| 2006 | 47 | 14 | 29.8% | 8 |
| 2005 | 55 | 12 | 21.8% | 12 |
| 2004 | 52 | 17 | 32.7% | 13 |
| 2003 | 54 | 14 | 25.9% | 10 |
| 2002 | 52 | 13 | 25.0% | 7 |
| 2001 | 51 | 11 | 21.6% | 13 |
| 2000 | 52 | 13 | 25.0% | 8 |
| 1999 | 50 | 16 | 32.0% | 7 |
| 1998 | 49 | 12 | 24.5% | 10 |
| 1997 | 52 | 18 | 34.6% | 8 |
| 1996 | 56 | 11 | 19.6% | 14 |
| 1995 | 54 | 13 | 24.1% | 9 |
| 1994 | 53 | 16 | 30.2% | 6 |
| 1993 | 31 | 7 | 22.6% | 10 |
| 1992 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1991 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 1990 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1989 | 7 | 4 | 57.1% | 1 |
| 1988 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1987 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1986 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1985 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1984 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 1983 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 5 |
| 1982 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1981 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1980 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 5 |
| 1979 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1978 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1977 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1976 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1975 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1974 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 9 |
| 1973 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1972 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1971 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 |
| 1970 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 |
| 1969 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1968 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 1967 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1966 | 14 | 5 | 35.7% | 4 |
| 1965 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 2 |
| 1964 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1963 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1962 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1961 | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1960 | 14 | 7 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1959 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1958 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1957 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1956 | 6 | 4 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1955 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1954 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1953 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1952 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1951 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1950 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1949 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1948 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1947 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 2 |
| 1946 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1939 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1938 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1937 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1936 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1935 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1934 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1933 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1932 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1931 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1930 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1929 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1928 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1927 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1926 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1925 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1924 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1923 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1922 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1921 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1920 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1915 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1914 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1913 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1912 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1911 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1910 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1909 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1908 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1907 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1906 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1902 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1901 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1900 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1899 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1898 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1897 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1896 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1895 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1894 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1893 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1892 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1891 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1890 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1889 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1887 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1886 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1885 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 14:00 |
Watford
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.0% |
|
| Tue, 13 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 13 Oct 18:45 |
Burnley
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.3% |
|
| Fri, 16 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 16 Oct 19:00 |
Burnley
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.9% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 14:00 |
Lincoln City
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.5% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 31 Oct 15:00 |
Burnley
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
| Tue, 03 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 03 Nov 19:45 |
Queens Park Rangers
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.4% |
|
| Sat, 07 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 07 Nov 15:00 |
Cardiff City
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.5% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.