Bristol Rovers
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 593 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), Bristol Rovers drew 126 where the draw model expected 161.4 from those particular fixtures — about 35 fewer, or 3.3 standard errors, well beyond the model — which is as likely to be a gap in the model as a property of Bristol Rovers.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 10 times running. A flat league average would have expected 156.8 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 32 | 22 Jul 2017 → 23 Dec 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 20 | 21 Mar 2009 → 19 Sep 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 15 | 29 Sep 2009 → 28 Dec 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 15 | 07 Apr 2001 → 27 Aug 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 15 | 03 Feb 1996 → 09 Apr 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 14 | 25 Feb 1997 → 03 May 1997 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 14 | 29 Aug 1995 → 31 Oct 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 13 | 27 Sep 2025 → 13 Dec 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 13 | 13 Jan 2024 → 09 Mar 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 13 | 22 Jan 2011 → 19 Mar 2011 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| League One | 909 | 228 | 25.1% | 3 | 34 |
| League Two | 560 | 143 | 25.5% | 8 | 12 |
| FA Cup | 301 | 73 | 24.3% | 2 | 4 |
| League Cup | 156 | 35 | 22.4% | 1 | 4 |
| National League | 46 | 16 | 34.8% | 1 | 7 |
| Club Friendlies | 24 | 4 | 16.7% | 2 | 5 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32 | 2 | 6.3% | 11 |
| 2025 | 53 | 6 | 11.3% | 13 |
| 2024 | 50 | 9 | 18.0% | 13 |
| 2023 | 48 | 11 | 22.9% | 6 |
| 2022 | 53 | 13 | 24.5% | 8 |
| 2021 | 55 | 11 | 20.0% | 10 |
| 2020 | 35 | 8 | 22.9% | 5 |
| 2019 | 49 | 18 | 36.7% | 6 |
| 2018 | 50 | 15 | 30.0% | 9 |
| 2017 | 62 | 11 | 17.7% | 32 |
| 2016 | 59 | 12 | 20.3% | 12 |
| 2015 | 47 | 10 | 21.3% | 12 |
| 2014 | 54 | 16 | 29.6% | 7 |
| 2013 | 50 | 15 | 30.0% | 6 |
| 2012 | 49 | 14 | 28.6% | 8 |
| 2011 | 54 | 11 | 20.4% | 13 |
| 2010 | 44 | 11 | 25.0% | 7 |
| 2009 | 49 | 5 | 10.2% | 20 |
| 2008 | 55 | 19 | 34.6% | 5 |
| 2007 | 49 | 17 | 34.7% | 7 |
| 2006 | 50 | 12 | 24.0% | 8 |
| 2005 | 51 | 16 | 31.4% | 7 |
| 2004 | 50 | 21 | 42.0% | 4 |
| 2003 | 48 | 14 | 29.2% | 10 |
| 2002 | 52 | 14 | 26.9% | 8 |
| 2001 | 54 | 14 | 25.9% | 15 |
| 2000 | 51 | 18 | 35.3% | 6 |
| 1999 | 54 | 13 | 24.1% | 9 |
| 1998 | 51 | 16 | 31.4% | 9 |
| 1997 | 51 | 12 | 23.5% | 14 |
| 1996 | 52 | 12 | 23.1% | 15 |
| 1995 | 53 | 15 | 28.3% | 14 |
| 1994 | 52 | 15 | 28.8% | 12 |
| 1993 | 25 | 7 | 28.0% | 4 |
| 1992 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1991 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1990 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1989 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1988 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1987 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1986 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 1985 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1984 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1983 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1982 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 1981 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1980 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1979 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1978 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 1977 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1976 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1975 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1974 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1973 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1972 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1971 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1970 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 2 |
| 1969 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1968 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1967 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1966 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1965 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1964 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1963 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1962 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1961 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1960 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1959 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1958 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1957 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1956 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1955 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1954 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1953 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1952 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1951 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1950 | 6 | 4 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1949 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1948 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1947 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1946 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1945 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1938 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1937 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1936 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1935 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1934 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1933 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1932 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1931 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1930 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1929 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1928 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1927 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1926 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1925 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1921 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1920 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1915 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1914 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1913 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1912 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1911 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1910 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1909 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1908 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1907 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1906 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1905 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1902 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1901 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 03 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 03 Oct 14:00 |
Crewe Alexandra
|
vs |
|
2.95 3.44 2.26 | 29.6% |
|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 14:00 |
Bristol Rovers
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 17 Oct 11:30 |
Shrewsbury Town
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.3% |
|
| Tue, 20 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 20 Oct 18:45 |
Bristol Rovers
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.7% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 11:30 |
Bristol Rovers
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.4% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 31 Oct 15:00 |
Fleetwood Town
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.0% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.