Bonnyrigg Rose
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 2 Oct 2026.
Over 149 matches (Sep 2016 – Nov 2025), Bonnyrigg Rose drew 34 where the draw model expected 34.2 from those particular fixtures — about 0 fewer, or 0.0 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 31.1 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 22 Mar 2025 → 29 Nov 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 11 | 20 Aug 2022 → 05 Nov 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 8 | 24 Aug 2024 → 26 Oct 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 8 | 23 Dec 2022 → 25 Feb 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 6 | 04 Nov 2023 → 02 Dec 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 5 | 25 Jan 2025 → 08 Feb 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 4 | 03 Dec 2024 → 04 Jan 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 4 | 20 Jul 2024 → 10 Aug 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 4 | 26 Aug 2023 → 23 Sep 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 4 | 21 Sep 2019 → 18 Jan 2020 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish League Two | 108 | 27 | 25.0% | 7 | 10 |
| Scottish Cup | 31 | 6 | 19.4% | 3 | 4 |
| Scottish League Cup | 16 | 3 | 18.8% | 4 | 4 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 26 | 3 | 11.5% | 14 |
| 2024 | 43 | 12 | 27.9% | 8 |
| 2023 | 41 | 10 | 24.4% | 7 |
| 2022 | 23 | 6 | 26.1% | 11 |
| 2021 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 2020 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2019 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2018 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2017 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2016 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 2012 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 2009 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 03 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 03 Oct 14:00 |
Clachnacuddin
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 17.3% | SCO · Scottish Cup |
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.