What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 548 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), AZ Alkmaar drew 115 where the draw model expected 110.4 from those particular fixtures — about 5 more, or 0.5 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 123.5 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20 | 10 Mar 2000 → 12 Nov 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 18 | 13 Jan 2021 → 08 May 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 17 | 27 Jan 2015 → 09 Aug 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 16 | 17 Feb 2018 → 25 Aug 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 15 | 09 Sep 2010 → 31 Oct 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 15 | 19 Apr 2005 → 20 Sep 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 14 | 14 Apr 2017 → 01 Oct 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 13 | 14 Feb 2026 → 19 Apr 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 13 | 15 Sep 2022 → 12 Nov 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 13 | 09 Dec 2019 → 01 Mar 2020 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eredivisie | 984 | 213 | 21.7% | 1 | 20 |
| UEFA Europa League | 155 | 43 | 27.7% | 1 | 8 |
| KNVB Cup | 75 | 10 | 13.3% | 2 | 6 |
| UEFA Conference League | 44 | 4 | 9.1% | 0 | 18 |
| Club Friendlies | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 2 | 2 |
| UEFA Champions League | 10 | 5 | 50.0% | 0 | 2 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 | 3 |
| Johan Cruyff Shield | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40 | 11 | 27.5% | 13 |
| 2025 | 60 | 15 | 25.0% | 9 |
| 2024 | 45 | 11 | 24.4% | 9 |
| 2023 | 52 | 10 | 19.2% | 12 |
| 2022 | 41 | 7 | 17.1% | 13 |
| 2021 | 46 | 6 | 13.0% | 18 |
| 2020 | 32 | 9 | 28.1% | 8 |
| 2019 | 51 | 12 | 23.5% | 8 |
| 2018 | 41 | 7 | 17.1% | 16 |
| 2017 | 43 | 10 | 23.3% | 14 |
| 2016 | 50 | 11 | 22.0% | 10 |
| 2015 | 47 | 6 | 12.8% | 17 |
| 2014 | 42 | 10 | 23.8% | 8 |
| 2013 | 49 | 11 | 22.5% | 10 |
| 2012 | 45 | 12 | 26.7% | 5 |
| 2011 | 47 | 11 | 23.4% | 9 |
| 2010 | 47 | 10 | 21.3% | 15 |
| 2009 | 46 | 8 | 17.4% | 12 |
| 2008 | 36 | 8 | 22.2% | 10 |
| 2007 | 43 | 12 | 27.9% | 7 |
| 2006 | 49 | 12 | 24.5% | 10 |
| 2005 | 46 | 8 | 17.4% | 15 |
| 2004 | 45 | 8 | 17.8% | 12 |
| 2003 | 34 | 8 | 23.5% | 8 |
| 2002 | 32 | 6 | 18.8% | 10 |
| 2001 | 34 | 6 | 17.7% | 9 |
| 2000 | 34 | 7 | 20.6% | 20 |
| 1999 | 33 | 4 | 12.1% | 10 |
| 1998 | 19 | 10 | 52.6% | 3 |
| 1997 | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 1996 | 20 | 3 | 15.0% | 10 |
| 1982 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1981 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1980 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1978 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1977 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 16:45 |
Feyenoord
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 22.5% |
|
| Thu, 15 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 15 Oct 16:45 |
AZ Alkmaar
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 14.2% |
|
| Sun, 18 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 18 Oct 12:30 |
SC Cambuur
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 11.1% |
|
| Thu, 22 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 22 Oct 16:45 |
Ararat-Armenia
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.0% |
|
| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 25 Oct 19:00 |
AZ Alkmaar
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.6% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 31 Oct 20:00 |
Ajax
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.2% |
|
| Thu, 05 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 05 Nov 20:00 |
AZ Alkmaar
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.2% |
|
| Sun, 08 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 08 Nov 15:45 |
AZ Alkmaar
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 18.3% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.