Alverca
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 219 matches (Aug 1998 – Sep 2026), Alverca drew 50 where the draw model expected 56.1 from those particular fixtures — about 6 fewer, or 1.0 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 55.6 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 01 Oct 2000 → 28 Jan 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 13 | 02 Oct 1999 → 23 Jan 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 10 | 07 Mar 2004 → 09 May 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 10 | 21 Feb 1999 → 16 May 1999 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 8 | 29 Nov 2025 → 25 Jan 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 27 May 2001 → 30 Sep 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 7 | 21 Sep 2003 → 09 Nov 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 7 | 26 Jan 2002 → 10 Mar 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 6 | 22 Mar 2026 → 02 May 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 6 | 19 Mar 2000 → 22 Apr 2000 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primeira Liga | 211 | 48 | 22.8% | 3 | 14 |
| Taça de Portugal | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 0 | 2 |
| Club Friendlies | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27 | 9 | 33.3% | 6 |
| 2025 | 17 | 3 | 17.7% | 5 |
| 2024 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2023 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2021 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2004 | 19 | 3 | 15.8% | 10 |
| 2003 | 15 | 2 | 13.3% | 7 |
| 2002 | 19 | 3 | 15.8% | 7 |
| 2001 | 34 | 7 | 20.6% | 8 |
| 2000 | 34 | 9 | 26.5% | 10 |
| 1999 | 33 | 5 | 15.2% | 10 |
| 1998 | 16 | 8 | 50.0% | 3 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, 12 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 12 Oct 19:15 |
FC Famalicão
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.6% |
|
| Sun, 18 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 18 Oct 14:00 |
CD Tondela
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.3% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 17:00 |
Alverca
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.0% |
|
| Mon, 02 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 02 Nov 20:15 |
SL Benfica
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 13.2% |
|
| Sat, 07 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 07 Nov 18:00 |
Alverca
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.9% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.