What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 148 matches (May 1976 – Sep 2026), Al-Hilal drew 38 where the draw model expected 28.6 from those particular fixtures — about 9 more, or 2.0 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 4 times running. A flat league average would have expected 29.3 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 20 Dec 2021 → 03 Apr 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 5 | 08 May 2026 → 12 Sep 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 5 | 18 Jan 2017 → 18 May 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 5 | 21 Mar 1984 → 06 May 1984 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 5 | 15 Apr 1981 → 14 May 1981 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 4 | 04 Jul 2025 → 29 Nov 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 4 | 03 Nov 2019 → 17 Dec 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 4 | 10 Mar 2015 → 31 May 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 4 | 12 Apr 1980 → 25 Apr 1980 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 3 | 25 Sep 2023 → 11 Dec 2023 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| King's Cup | 130 | 33 | 25.4% | 1 | 5 |
| FIFA Club World Cup | 14 | 5 | 35.7% | 1 | 3 |
| Saudi Pro League | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 | 4 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 2025 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 4 |
| 2024 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 2023 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 2022 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 2021 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2020 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 2019 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 2018 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2017 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 2016 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2015 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 2014 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2013 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2012 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 1 |
| 2011 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 2010 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 2009 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 2 |
| 2008 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1990 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1989 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1988 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1987 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1986 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1985 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1984 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1983 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1982 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1981 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1980 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1979 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1978 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1977 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1976 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 18:00 |
Al-Hilal
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.3% |
|
| Fri, 16 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 16 Oct 15:00 |
Al Riyadh
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.4% |
|
| Mon, 19 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 19 Oct 18:00 |
Al-Hilal
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.0% |
|
| Fri, 23 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 23 Oct 18:00 |
Al Qadsiah
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 26.7% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 31 Oct 18:00 |
Al-Hilal
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 20.8% |
|
| Thu, 05 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 05 Nov 20:00 |
Al Ettifaq
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.3% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.