Aarau
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 2 Oct 2026.
Over 365 matches (Oct 1925 – Sep 2026), Aarau drew 74 where the draw model expected 62.4 from those particular fixtures — about 12 more, or 1.6 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 3 times running. A flat league average would have expected 63.9 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 09 Feb 2014 → 04 May 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 10 | 03 May 2015 → 12 Dec 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 10 | 10 Aug 2013 → 26 Oct 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 7 | 10 Mar 1996 → 09 Sep 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 6 | 10 Feb 2021 → 26 Oct 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 4 | 14 Aug 2016 → 01 Mar 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 4 | 21 Mar 2015 → 19 Apr 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 4 | 09 Nov 2014 → 07 Dec 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 4 | 10 Nov 2013 → 15 Dec 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 4 | 27 Feb 2013 → 27 Jul 2013 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swiss Cup | 272 | 53 | 19.5% | 3 | 6 |
| Super League | 74 | 18 | 24.3% | 2 | 14 |
| UEFA Europa League | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 4 |
| UEFA Champions League | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 0 | 3 |
| Club Friendlies | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 3 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 0 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2025 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2024 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2023 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2022 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2021 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 2020 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2019 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 2018 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2017 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2016 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2015 | 23 | 5 | 21.7% | 10 |
| 2014 | 40 | 10 | 25.0% | 14 |
| 2013 | 22 | 4 | 18.2% | 10 |
| 2012 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2011 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2010 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2009 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2008 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2007 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2006 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2005 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 2004 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 2003 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 2002 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2001 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2000 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1999 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1998 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1997 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1996 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1995 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1994 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1993 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1992 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1991 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1990 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1989 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1988 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1987 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1986 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1985 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 4 |
| 1984 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1983 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1982 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1981 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1980 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1979 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1978 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1977 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1976 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1975 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1974 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1973 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1972 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1971 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1970 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1969 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1968 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1967 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1966 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1965 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1964 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1963 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1962 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1961 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1960 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1959 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1958 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1957 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1956 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1955 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1954 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1952 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1951 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1950 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1949 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1948 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1947 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1946 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1945 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1944 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1943 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1942 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1941 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1940 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1939 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 |
| 1938 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1937 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1936 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1935 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1934 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1933 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1932 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1931 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1930 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1929 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1928 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1927 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1926 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1925 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, 02 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 02 Oct 14:30 |
Aarau
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 17.5% | ITL · Club Friendlies |
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.