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No-draw streak ‹ back to records
SCO · Club

Ayr United

A run of consecutive matches without a draw.
33
non-draws in a row
14 Nov 2015 → 20 Aug 2016
Was this a feat, or a coincidence? how this is worked out ›
Draws the model expected 7.8 across these 33 fixtures, one chance each
A flat league rate expected 8.0 the same question, asked without knowing the fixtures
Chance of no draw at all 1 in 7,640 for this run alone — and that overstates it
Runs this long, expected anywhere 20.80 across every run in the database

Each match gets its own draw chance from the five-feature logistic draw model, recalibrated by its isotonic map, and the run's own probability is those chances multiplied — the Poisson-binomial reading. A binomial at the run's average chance would have called it 1.02× more likely, which is the direction that error always goes. The last tile is the figure to quote: a run picked out because it is long is not a coincidence you get to be surprised by — why that is, and what the same question says about every other record here. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.

Matches in this run
Date Home Score Away R Tournament
the draw before the run
07 Nov 2015 Brechin City 1–1 Ayr United D SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 14 Nov 2015 Ayr United 1–0 Albion Rovers H SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 21 Nov 2015 Ayr United 3–0 Airdrieonians H SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 28 Nov 2015 Ayr United 0–1 Dunfermline Athletic A SCO · Scottish Cup
☆ 12 Dec 2015 Ayr United 1–2 Dunfermline Athletic A SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 19 Dec 2015 Peterhead 3–0 Ayr United H SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 26 Dec 2015 Ayr United 2–1 Brechin City H SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 29 Dec 2015 Cowdenbeath 4–2 Ayr United H SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 02 Jan 2016 Stranraer 1–0 Ayr United H SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 23 Jan 2016 Albion Rovers 1–3 Ayr United A SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 06 Feb 2016 Ayr United 1–2 Peterhead A SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 13 Feb 2016 Dunfermline Athletic 3–2 Ayr United H SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 20 Feb 2016 Ayr United 2–1 Forfar Athletic H SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 27 Feb 2016 Airdrieonians 0–1 Ayr United A SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 01 Mar 2016 Ayr United 4–1 Cowdenbeath H SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 05 Mar 2016 Brechin City 1–0 Ayr United H SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 08 Mar 2016 Ayr United 4–1 Stenhousemuir H SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 12 Mar 2016 Ayr United 0–2 Dunfermline Athletic A SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 19 Mar 2016 Forfar Athletic 3–1 Ayr United H SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 26 Mar 2016 Ayr United 2–1 Stranraer H SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 02 Apr 2016 Cowdenbeath 1–0 Ayr United H SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 09 Apr 2016 Ayr United 0–1 Albion Rovers A SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 16 Apr 2016 Stenhousemuir 0–4 Ayr United A SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 23 Apr 2016 Peterhead 0–4 Ayr United A SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 30 Apr 2016 Ayr United 0–3 Airdrieonians A SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 09 Jul 2016 Ayr United 0–2 South Shields A ITL · Club Friendlies
☆ 16 Jul 2016 Ayr United 2–1 Hamilton Academical H SCO · Scottish League Cup
☆ 19 Jul 2016 St Mirren 1–0 Ayr United H SCO · Scottish League Cup
☆ 23 Jul 2016 Ayr United 1–0 Edinburgh City H SCO · Scottish League Cup
☆ 26 Jul 2016 Livingston 0–2 Ayr United A SCO · Scottish League Cup
☆ 06 Aug 2016 Ayr United 0–2 Raith Rovers A SCO · Scottish Championship
☆ 10 Aug 2016 Ayr United 1–2 Aberdeen A SCO · Scottish League Cup
☆ 13 Aug 2016 Queen of the South 4–1 Ayr United H SCO · Scottish Championship
☆ 20 Aug 2016 Dundee United 3–0 Ayr United H SCO · Scottish Championship
the draw that ended it
27 Aug 2016 Ayr United 1–1 St Mirren D SCO · Scottish Championship

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