▦ FDB4
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Match official

Paul Durkin

2000–2004 · 4 competitions
Also recorded as: Durkin, P., Durkin, P. A., P Durkin, P. A. Durkin, P.A. Durkin
Matches 121
Draws 29
Draw % 24.0% -0.4 pts vs 24.3%
Comps 4
Luck or skill how this is worked out ›

Over 121 matches (Aug 2000 – May 2004), Paul Durkin drew 29 where the draw model expected 31.7 from those particular fixtures — about 3 fewer, or 0.6 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.

A flat league average would have expected 31.5 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.

By competition 4 competitions
Competition Matches Draws Draw %
ENG · Premier League 88 20 22.7%
ENG · Championship 18 4 22.2%
ENG · League One 8 2 25.0%
ENG · League Two 7 3 42.9%
By season 4 seasons
Season Matches Draws Draw %
2003/04 29 8 27.6%
2002/03 28 8 28.6%
2001/02 29 6 20.7%
2000/01 35 7 20.0%
Latest matches last 50

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