▦ FDB4
Referee all referees ›
Match official

A Coggins

2016–2021 · 4 competitions
Matches 132
Draws 30
Draw % 22.7% -1.6 pts vs 24.3%
Comps 4
Luck or skill how this is worked out ›

Over 132 matches (Aug 2016 – Oct 2021), A Coggins drew 30 where the draw model expected 36.5 from those particular fixtures — about 6 fewer, or 1.3 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.

As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 35.5 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.

By competition 4 competitions
Competition Matches Draws Draw %
ENG · League Two 59 14 23.7%
ENG · League One 50 10 20.0%
ENG · National League 22 5 22.7%
ENG · Championship 1 1 100.0%
By season 6 seasons
Season Matches Draws Draw %
2021/22 4 1 25.0%
2020/21 26 3 11.5%
2019/20 21 5 23.8%
2018/19 32 9 28.1%
2017/18 27 7 25.9%
2016/17 22 5 22.7%
Latest matches last 50

We use a session cookie to run the site and, if you allow it, Google Analytics to see which pages are used. No ads, no tracking across sites. Cookie policy