VfB Stuttgart
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 478 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), VfB Stuttgart drew 99 where the draw model expected 111.5 from those particular fixtures — about 13 fewer, or 1.4 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 119.4 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28 | 18 Aug 2007 → 23 Feb 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 19 | 30 Aug 2025 → 09 Nov 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 17 | 05 Aug 2023 → 06 Dec 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 15 | 14 Mar 2021 → 28 Aug 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 15 | 26 Sep 2018 → 27 Jan 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 13 | 09 Apr 2016 → 20 Sep 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 13 | 02 May 2015 → 26 Sep 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 13 | 01 Nov 2013 → 02 Mar 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 13 | 14 Dec 1999 → 08 Apr 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 12 | 17 Mar 2007 → 04 Aug 2007 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bundesliga | 1058 | 270 | 25.5% | 4 | 22 |
| UEFA Europa League | 144 | 28 | 19.4% | 12 | 12 |
| DFB-Pokal | 72 | 8 | 11.1% | 2 | 9 |
| 2. Bundesliga | 68 | 13 | 19.1% | 4 | 12 |
| UEFA Champions League | 38 | 9 | 23.7% | 1 | 7 |
| Club Friendlies | 20 | 3 | 15.0% | 4 | 4 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 4 | 4 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 1 | 3 |
| DFL-Supercup | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 38 | 8 | 21.1% | 10 |
| 2025 | 56 | 7 | 12.5% | 19 |
| 2024 | 44 | 10 | 22.7% | 7 |
| 2023 | 42 | 8 | 19.1% | 17 |
| 2022 | 36 | 12 | 33.3% | 11 |
| 2021 | 42 | 8 | 19.1% | 15 |
| 2020 | 33 | 9 | 27.3% | 8 |
| 2019 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 7 |
| 2018 | 38 | 7 | 18.4% | 13 |
| 2017 | 37 | 7 | 18.9% | 7 |
| 2016 | 37 | 5 | 13.5% | 13 |
| 2015 | 38 | 8 | 21.1% | 13 |
| 2014 | 36 | 9 | 25.0% | 7 |
| 2013 | 44 | 10 | 22.7% | 7 |
| 2012 | 48 | 12 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 2011 | 37 | 7 | 18.9% | 8 |
| 2010 | 51 | 10 | 19.6% | 8 |
| 2009 | 46 | 15 | 32.6% | 8 |
| 2008 | 48 | 10 | 20.8% | 11 |
| 2007 | 45 | 3 | 6.7% | 23 |
| 2006 | 37 | 11 | 29.7% | 9 |
| 2005 | 42 | 13 | 31.0% | 7 |
| 2004 | 44 | 11 | 25.0% | 7 |
| 2003 | 40 | 7 | 17.5% | 8 |
| 2002 | 41 | 11 | 26.8% | 7 |
| 2001 | 34 | 12 | 35.3% | 8 |
| 2000 | 43 | 11 | 25.6% | 11 |
| 1999 | 33 | 9 | 27.3% | 7 |
| 1998 | 41 | 13 | 31.7% | 8 |
| 1997 | 41 | 8 | 19.5% | 8 |
| 1996 | 34 | 10 | 29.4% | 9 |
| 1995 | 34 | 13 | 38.2% | 5 |
| 1994 | 31 | 7 | 22.6% | 6 |
| 1993 | 20 | 8 | 40.0% | 4 |
| 1992 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1991 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1989 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1988 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 1986 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1984 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1983 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1981 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1980 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1979 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 1978 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1973 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 7 |
| 1969 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1966 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1964 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.