What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 197 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), Vitória de Setúbal drew 64 where the draw model expected 50.7 from those particular fixtures — about 13 more, or 2.2 standard errors, more of a gap than most, though roughly one subject in twenty looks like this by chance.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 5 times running. A flat league average would have expected 49.9 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25 | 25 Nov 2012 → 15 Sep 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 16 | 16 Jan 2006 → 30 Apr 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 12 | 16 Feb 2009 → 16 May 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 12 | 04 Oct 1998 → 04 Jan 1999 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 12 | 01 Mar 1998 → 17 May 1998 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 11 | 06 Nov 2016 → 05 Feb 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 11 | 24 Oct 2014 → 25 Jan 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 10 | 09 Dec 2013 → 02 Mar 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 10 | 03 Apr 1999 → 19 Aug 1999 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 06 Oct 2018 → 02 Jan 2019 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primeira Liga | 750 | 213 | 28.4% | 1 | 25 |
| UEFA Europa League | 32 | 6 | 18.8% | 1 | 8 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 24 | 2 | 8.3% | 0 | 8 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 0 | 3 |
| Taça de Portugal | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 1 | 3 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2023 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 2022 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2021 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2020 | 20 | 6 | 30.0% | 6 |
| 2019 | 34 | 17 | 50.0% | 4 |
| 2018 | 33 | 9 | 27.3% | 8 |
| 2017 | 34 | 8 | 23.5% | 8 |
| 2016 | 35 | 10 | 28.6% | 6 |
| 2015 | 34 | 12 | 35.3% | 4 |
| 2014 | 30 | 7 | 23.3% | 7 |
| 2013 | 33 | 4 | 12.1% | 23 |
| 2012 | 28 | 7 | 25.0% | 8 |
| 2011 | 29 | 10 | 34.5% | 7 |
| 2010 | 30 | 12 | 40.0% | 5 |
| 2009 | 32 | 5 | 15.6% | 12 |
| 2008 | 30 | 7 | 23.3% | 9 |
| 2007 | 30 | 14 | 46.7% | 3 |
| 2006 | 34 | 6 | 17.7% | 16 |
| 2005 | 37 | 11 | 29.7% | 8 |
| 2004 | 15 | 3 | 20.0% | 9 |
| 2003 | 19 | 5 | 26.3% | 6 |
| 2002 | 33 | 15 | 45.5% | 3 |
| 2001 | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 7 |
| 2000 | 19 | 3 | 15.8% | 8 |
| 1999 | 35 | 8 | 22.9% | 10 |
| 1998 | 36 | 5 | 13.9% | 12 |
| 1997 | 35 | 10 | 28.6% | 8 |
| 1996 | 13 | 5 | 38.5% | 3 |
| 1995 | 20 | 8 | 40.0% | 4 |
| 1994 | 14 | 5 | 35.7% | 4 |
| 1974 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1973 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 7 |
| 1972 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 1971 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1970 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 7 |
| 1969 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1968 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 1967 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1966 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1965 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1962 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 18 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 18 Oct 14:00 |
Vitória de Setúbal
|
vs | Uniao da Serra | – / – / – | 19.5% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.