What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 22 Oct 2026.
Over 551 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), Porto drew 87 where the draw model expected 104.8 from those particular fixtures — about 18 fewer, or 1.9 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 4 times running. A flat league average would have expected 134.5 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24 | 06 Dec 2010 → 05 May 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 23 | 10 Jan 2016 → 10 Sep 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 19 | 15 Sep 2023 → 29 Dec 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 19 | 09 Nov 2002 → 16 Mar 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 18 | 26 Apr 2026 → 20 Oct 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 18 | 20 Mar 2022 → 13 Sep 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 17 | 22 Sep 2018 → 07 Jan 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 16 | 20 Oct 2025 → 02 Feb 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 16 | 07 Nov 2021 → 06 Feb 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 16 | 09 Mar 2010 → 25 Sep 2010 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primeira Liga | 1064 | 173 | 16.3% | 14 | 31 |
| UEFA Champions League | 274 | 60 | 21.9% | 3 | 10 |
| UEFA Europa League | 118 | 23 | 19.5% | 1 | 9 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 41 | 7 | 17.1% | 6 | 6 |
| Taça de Portugal | 29 | 2 | 6.9% | 0 | 13 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 1 | 3 |
| Club Friendlies | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 3 | 3 |
| UEFA Super Cup | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 2 |
| FIFA Club World Cup | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 0 | 1 |
| Intercontinental Cup (Toyota Cup) | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39 | 5 | 12.8% | 18 |
| 2025 | 54 | 10 | 18.5% | 11 |
| 2024 | 51 | 9 | 17.7% | 9 |
| 2023 | 50 | 4 | 8.0% | 19 |
| 2022 | 48 | 6 | 12.5% | 18 |
| 2021 | 53 | 12 | 22.6% | 10 |
| 2020 | 39 | 4 | 10.3% | 10 |
| 2019 | 44 | 7 | 15.9% | 13 |
| 2018 | 42 | 4 | 9.5% | 15 |
| 2017 | 43 | 11 | 25.6% | 11 |
| 2016 | 42 | 7 | 16.7% | 23 |
| 2015 | 46 | 8 | 17.4% | 11 |
| 2014 | 40 | 8 | 20.0% | 12 |
| 2013 | 43 | 11 | 25.6% | 12 |
| 2012 | 34 | 6 | 17.7% | 7 |
| 2011 | 45 | 6 | 13.3% | 21 |
| 2010 | 42 | 6 | 14.3% | 16 |
| 2009 | 42 | 9 | 21.4% | 10 |
| 2008 | 36 | 4 | 11.1% | 13 |
| 2007 | 38 | 7 | 18.4% | 6 |
| 2006 | 38 | 6 | 15.8% | 12 |
| 2005 | 43 | 13 | 30.2% | 9 |
| 2004 | 49 | 15 | 30.6% | 7 |
| 2003 | 44 | 8 | 18.2% | 11 |
| 2002 | 47 | 7 | 14.9% | 11 |
| 2001 | 47 | 8 | 17.0% | 12 |
| 2000 | 52 | 11 | 21.2% | 7 |
| 1999 | 41 | 9 | 22.0% | 11 |
| 1998 | 42 | 4 | 9.5% | 15 |
| 1997 | 43 | 8 | 18.6% | 14 |
| 1996 | 37 | 7 | 18.9% | 7 |
| 1995 | 43 | 8 | 18.6% | 11 |
| 1994 | 24 | 3 | 12.5% | 9 |
| 1993 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1992 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1991 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1990 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1989 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1988 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1987 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 8 |
| 1986 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1985 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1984 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 1983 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1982 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1981 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1980 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1979 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1978 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1977 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1976 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1975 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1974 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1972 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1971 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1969 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1968 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1967 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1966 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1965 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1964 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1963 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1962 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1959 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1956 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| Date | Home | Score | Away | R | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
☆
· ITL · UEFA Champions League
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· ITL · UEFA Champions League
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· ITL · UEFA Champions League
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· ITL · UEFA Champions League
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· ITL · UEFA Champions League
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· ITL · UEFA Champions League
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· ITL · UEFA Champions League
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· ITL · UEFA Champions League
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· ITL · UEFA Champions League
|
|||||
| ☆ 06 Nov 2013 |
Zenit Saint Petersburg
|
1–1 |
|
D |
|
| ☆ 02 Nov 2013 |
CF Os Belenenses
|
1–1 |
|
D |
|
| ☆ 27 Oct 2013 |
Porto
|
3–1 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 22 Oct 2013 |
Porto
|
0–1 |
|
A |
|
| ☆ 06 Oct 2013 |
Arouca
|
1–3 |
|
A |
|
| ☆ 01 Oct 2013 |
Porto
|
1–2 |
|
A |
|
| ☆ 27 Sep 2013 |
Porto
|
1–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 22 Sep 2013 |
GD Estoril Praia
|
2–2 |
|
D |
|
| ☆ 18 Sep 2013 |
FK Austria Wien
|
0–1 |
|
A |
|
| ☆ 14 Sep 2013 |
Porto
|
2–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 01 Sep 2013 |
FC Paços de Ferreira
|
0–1 |
|
A |
|
| ☆ 25 Aug 2013 |
Porto
|
3–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 18 Aug 2013 |
Vitória de Setúbal
|
1–3 |
|
A |
|
| ☆ 19 May 2013 |
FC Paços de Ferreira
|
0–2 |
|
A |
|
| ☆ 11 May 2013 |
Porto
|
2–1 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 04 May 2013 |
CD Nacional
|
1–3 |
|
A |
|
| ☆ 27 Apr 2013 |
Porto
|
2–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 20 Apr 2013 |
Moreirense
|
0–3 |
|
A |
|
| ☆ 08 Apr 2013 |
Porto
|
3–1 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 30 Mar 2013 |
Académica de Coimbra
|
0–3 |
|
A |
|
| ☆ 17 Mar 2013 |
CS Marítimo
|
1–1 |
|
D |
|
| ☆ 13 Mar 2013 |
Málaga CF
|
2–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 08 Mar 2013 |
Porto
|
2–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 02 Mar 2013 |
Sporting CP
|
0–0 |
|
D |
|
| ☆ 23 Feb 2013 |
Porto
|
2–1 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 19 Feb 2013 |
Porto
|
1–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 15 Feb 2013 |
SC Beira-Mar
|
0–2 |
|
A |
|
| ☆ 10 Feb 2013 |
Porto
|
1–1 |
|
D |
|
| ☆ 02 Feb 2013 |
Vitória de Guimarães
|
0–4 |
|
A |
|
| ☆ 28 Jan 2013 |
Porto
|
5–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 23 Jan 2013 |
Vitória de Setúbal
|
0–3 |
|
A |
|
| ☆ 19 Jan 2013 |
Porto
|
2–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 13 Jan 2013 |
SL Benfica
|
2–2 |
|
D |
|
| ☆ 05 Jan 2013 |
Porto
|
1–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 08 Dec 2012 |
Porto
|
1–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 04 Dec 2012 |
Paris Saint-Germain
|
2–1 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 25 Nov 2012 |
SC Braga
|
0–2 |
|
A |
|
| ☆ 21 Nov 2012 |
Porto
|
3–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 11 Nov 2012 |
Porto
|
2–1 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 06 Nov 2012 |
Dynamo Kyiv
|
0–0 |
|
D |
|
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| ☆ 24 Oct 19:30 |
Gil Vicente
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.4% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| ☆ 31 Oct 20:30 |
Porto
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 15.4% |
|
| Wed, 04 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| ☆ 04 Nov 20:00 |
Porto
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.4% |
|
| Sun, 08 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| ☆ 08 Nov 18:00 |
Vitória de Guimarães
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.6% |
|
| Tue, 24 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| ☆ 24 Nov 20:00 |
Feyenoord
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.4% |
|
| Sun, 29 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| ☆ 29 Nov 20:30 |
Porto
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.