What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 21 Oct 2026.
Over 551 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), Porto drew 87 where the draw model expected 104.8 from those particular fixtures — about 18 fewer, or 1.9 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 4 times running. A flat league average would have expected 134.5 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24 | 06 Dec 2010 → 05 May 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 23 | 10 Jan 2016 → 10 Sep 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 19 | 15 Sep 2023 → 29 Dec 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 19 | 09 Nov 2002 → 16 Mar 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 18 | 26 Apr 2026 → 20 Oct 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 18 | 20 Mar 2022 → 13 Sep 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 17 | 22 Sep 2018 → 07 Jan 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 16 | 20 Oct 2025 → 02 Feb 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 16 | 07 Nov 2021 → 06 Feb 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 16 | 09 Mar 2010 → 25 Sep 2010 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primeira Liga | 1064 | 173 | 16.3% | 14 | 31 |
| UEFA Champions League | 274 | 60 | 21.9% | 3 | 10 |
| UEFA Europa League | 118 | 23 | 19.5% | 1 | 9 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 41 | 7 | 17.1% | 6 | 6 |
| Taça de Portugal | 29 | 2 | 6.9% | 0 | 13 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 1 | 3 |
| Club Friendlies | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 3 | 3 |
| UEFA Super Cup | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 2 |
| FIFA Club World Cup | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 0 | 1 |
| Intercontinental Cup (Toyota Cup) | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39 | 5 | 12.8% | 18 |
| 2025 | 54 | 10 | 18.5% | 11 |
| 2024 | 51 | 9 | 17.7% | 9 |
| 2023 | 50 | 4 | 8.0% | 19 |
| 2022 | 48 | 6 | 12.5% | 18 |
| 2021 | 53 | 12 | 22.6% | 10 |
| 2020 | 39 | 4 | 10.3% | 10 |
| 2019 | 44 | 7 | 15.9% | 13 |
| 2018 | 42 | 4 | 9.5% | 15 |
| 2017 | 43 | 11 | 25.6% | 11 |
| 2016 | 42 | 7 | 16.7% | 23 |
| 2015 | 46 | 8 | 17.4% | 11 |
| 2014 | 40 | 8 | 20.0% | 12 |
| 2013 | 43 | 11 | 25.6% | 12 |
| 2012 | 34 | 6 | 17.7% | 7 |
| 2011 | 45 | 6 | 13.3% | 21 |
| 2010 | 42 | 6 | 14.3% | 16 |
| 2009 | 42 | 9 | 21.4% | 10 |
| 2008 | 36 | 4 | 11.1% | 13 |
| 2007 | 38 | 7 | 18.4% | 6 |
| 2006 | 38 | 6 | 15.8% | 12 |
| 2005 | 43 | 13 | 30.2% | 9 |
| 2004 | 49 | 15 | 30.6% | 7 |
| 2003 | 44 | 8 | 18.2% | 11 |
| 2002 | 47 | 7 | 14.9% | 11 |
| 2001 | 47 | 8 | 17.0% | 12 |
| 2000 | 52 | 11 | 21.2% | 7 |
| 1999 | 41 | 9 | 22.0% | 11 |
| 1998 | 42 | 4 | 9.5% | 15 |
| 1997 | 43 | 8 | 18.6% | 14 |
| 1996 | 37 | 7 | 18.9% | 7 |
| 1995 | 43 | 8 | 18.6% | 11 |
| 1994 | 24 | 3 | 12.5% | 9 |
| 1993 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1992 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1991 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1990 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1989 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1988 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1987 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 8 |
| 1986 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1985 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1984 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 1983 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1982 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1981 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1980 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1979 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1978 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1977 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1976 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1975 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1974 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1972 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1971 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1969 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1968 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1967 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1966 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1965 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1964 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1963 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1962 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1959 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1956 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| Date | Home | Score | Away | R | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· ITL · UEFA Champions League
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· ITL · UEFA Champions League
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· ITL · UEFA Champions League
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· ITL · UEFA Europa League
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· ITL · UEFA Europa League
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· ITL · UEFA Europa League
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· ITL · UEFA Europa League
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· ITL · UEFA Champions League
☆
· ITL · UEFA Europa League
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
☆
· ITL · UEFA Champions League
☆
· ITL · UEFA Europa League
☆
· POR · Primeira Liga
|
|||||
| ☆ 25 Oct 2014 |
Arouca
|
0–5 |
|
A |
|
| ☆ 21 Oct 2014 |
Porto
|
2–1 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 05 Oct 2014 |
Porto
|
2–1 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 30 Sep 2014 |
Shakhtar Donetsk
|
2–2 |
|
D |
|
| ☆ 26 Sep 2014 |
Sporting CP
|
1–1 |
|
D |
|
| ☆ 21 Sep 2014 |
Porto
|
0–0 |
|
D |
|
| ☆ 17 Sep 2014 |
Porto
|
6–0 | BATE Borisov | H |
|
| ☆ 14 Sep 2014 |
Vitória de Guimarães
|
1–1 |
|
D |
|
| ☆ 31 Aug 2014 |
Porto
|
3–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 23 Aug 2014 |
FC Paços de Ferreira
|
0–1 |
|
A |
|
| ☆ 15 Aug 2014 |
Porto
|
2–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 10 May 2014 |
Porto
|
2–1 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 04 May 2014 |
SC Olhanense
|
2–1 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 21 Apr 2014 |
Porto
|
3–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 19 Apr 2014 |
Sevilla
|
4–1 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 13 Apr 2014 |
SC Braga
|
1–3 |
|
A |
|
| ☆ 06 Apr 2014 |
Porto
|
3–1 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 05 Apr 2014 |
Porto
|
1–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 30 Mar 2014 |
CD Nacional
|
2–1 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 23 Mar 2014 |
Porto
|
1–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 19 Mar 2014 |
SSC Napoli
|
2–2 |
|
D |
|
| ☆ 16 Mar 2014 |
Sporting CP
|
1–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 09 Mar 2014 |
Porto
|
4–1 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 05 Mar 2014 |
Porto
|
1–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 02 Mar 2014 |
Vitória de Guimarães
|
2–2 |
|
D |
|
| ☆ 23 Feb 2014 |
Porto
|
0–1 |
|
A |
|
| ☆ 16 Feb 2014 |
Gil Vicente
|
1–2 |
|
A |
|
| ☆ 09 Feb 2014 |
Porto
|
3–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 01 Feb 2014 |
CS Marítimo
|
1–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 19 Jan 2014 |
Porto
|
3–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 12 Jan 2014 |
SL Benfica
|
2–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 20 Dec 2013 |
Porto
|
4–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 15 Dec 2013 |
Rio Ave
|
1–3 |
|
A |
|
| ☆ 11 Dec 2013 |
Atlético Madrid
|
2–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 09 Dec 2013 |
Eintracht Frankfurt
|
3–3 |
|
D |
|
| ☆ 07 Dec 2013 |
Porto
|
2–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 30 Nov 2013 |
Académica de Coimbra
|
1–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 26 Nov 2013 |
Porto
|
1–1 |
|
D |
|
| ☆ 25 Nov 2013 |
Porto
|
2–2 |
|
D |
|
| ☆ 23 Nov 2013 |
Porto
|
1–1 |
|
D |
|
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| ☆ 24 Oct 19:30 |
Gil Vicente
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.4% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| ☆ 31 Oct 20:30 |
Porto
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 15.4% |
|
| Wed, 04 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| ☆ 04 Nov 20:00 |
Porto
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.4% |
|
| Sun, 08 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| ☆ 08 Nov 18:00 |
Vitória de Guimarães
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.6% |
|
| Tue, 24 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| ☆ 24 Nov 20:00 |
Feyenoord
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.4% |
|
| Sun, 29 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| ☆ 29 Nov 20:30 |
Porto
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.