Northampton Town
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 2 Oct 2026.
Over 574 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), Northampton Town drew 145 where the draw model expected 158.3 from those particular fixtures — about 13 fewer, or 1.2 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 153.6 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22 | 15 Oct 2016 → 14 Feb 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 17 | 05 Feb 2000 → 06 May 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 14 | 10 Jan 2004 → 13 Mar 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 12 | 08 Mar 2026 → 11 Jul 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 11 | 19 Feb 2007 → 21 Apr 2007 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 11 | 03 Nov 2001 → 29 Dec 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 10 | 16 Sep 2020 → 31 Oct 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 10 | 28 Jan 2020 → 07 Mar 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 10 | 07 Nov 2015 → 02 Jan 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 10 | 18 Apr 2015 → 25 Aug 2015 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| League Two | 864 | 236 | 27.3% | 3 | 17 |
| League One | 644 | 171 | 26.6% | 11 | 20 |
| FA Cup | 268 | 65 | 24.3% | 1 | 4 |
| League Cup | 162 | 33 | 20.4% | 1 | 5 |
| Club Friendlies | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 2 | 2 |
| FA Community Shield | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 36 | 9 | 25.0% | 12 |
| 2025 | 48 | 11 | 22.9% | 8 |
| 2024 | 47 | 14 | 29.8% | 8 |
| 2023 | 50 | 10 | 20.0% | 9 |
| 2022 | 50 | 14 | 28.0% | 8 |
| 2021 | 51 | 14 | 27.5% | 6 |
| 2020 | 39 | 5 | 12.8% | 10 |
| 2019 | 48 | 13 | 27.1% | 8 |
| 2018 | 48 | 19 | 39.6% | 7 |
| 2017 | 50 | 11 | 22.0% | 8 |
| 2016 | 56 | 17 | 30.4% | 14 |
| 2015 | 51 | 8 | 15.7% | 10 |
| 2014 | 50 | 11 | 22.0% | 8 |
| 2013 | 49 | 11 | 22.5% | 9 |
| 2012 | 50 | 15 | 30.0% | 7 |
| 2011 | 52 | 18 | 34.6% | 8 |
| 2010 | 49 | 13 | 26.5% | 10 |
| 2009 | 49 | 13 | 26.5% | 10 |
| 2008 | 51 | 19 | 37.3% | 5 |
| 2007 | 51 | 13 | 25.5% | 11 |
| 2006 | 51 | 16 | 31.4% | 7 |
| 2005 | 53 | 17 | 32.1% | 8 |
| 2004 | 52 | 11 | 21.2% | 14 |
| 2003 | 50 | 10 | 20.0% | 10 |
| 2002 | 49 | 11 | 22.5% | 9 |
| 2001 | 52 | 10 | 19.2% | 11 |
| 2000 | 49 | 7 | 14.3% | 17 |
| 1999 | 49 | 13 | 26.5% | 7 |
| 1998 | 53 | 19 | 35.9% | 5 |
| 1997 | 51 | 17 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 1996 | 55 | 13 | 23.6% | 10 |
| 1995 | 46 | 13 | 28.3% | 5 |
| 1994 | 47 | 15 | 31.9% | 7 |
| 1993 | 24 | 5 | 20.8% | 5 |
| 1992 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1991 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1990 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 3 |
| 1989 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1988 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1987 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1986 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1985 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1984 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1983 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 2 |
| 1982 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1981 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 1980 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1979 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1978 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1977 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1976 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1975 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1974 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1973 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1972 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1971 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1970 | 12 | 5 | 41.7% | 2 |
| 1969 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 1 |
| 1968 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1967 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 1966 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1965 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1964 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1963 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1962 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1961 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1960 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1959 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1958 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1957 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1956 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1955 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1954 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1953 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1952 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1951 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1950 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1949 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1948 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1947 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1946 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1945 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1938 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1937 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1936 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1935 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1934 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1933 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1932 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1931 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1930 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1929 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1928 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1927 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1926 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1925 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1924 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1922 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1921 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1915 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1914 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1913 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1912 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1911 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1910 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1909 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1908 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1907 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1906 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1902 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 14:00 |
York City
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 14.3% |
|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 17 Oct 14:00 |
Grimsby Town
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.0% |
|
| Tue, 20 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 20 Oct 18:45 |
Northampton Town
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.6% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 11:30 |
Northampton Town
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 30.8% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 31 Oct 15:00 |
Accrington Stanley
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.2% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.