What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 512 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), OGC Nice drew 132 where the draw model expected 136.7 from those particular fixtures — about 5 fewer, or 0.5 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 136.8 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18 | 18 Oct 2025 → 21 Dec 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 18 | 15 Sep 2013 → 05 Jan 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 14 | 20 Apr 2025 → 20 Sep 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 14 | 21 Sep 2016 → 20 Nov 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 14 | 19 Aug 2000 → 28 Oct 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 14 | 21 Sep 1995 → 13 Jan 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 12 | 17 Jan 2021 → 08 Mar 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 12 | 16 Feb 2013 → 12 May 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 12 | 14 Apr 2001 → 14 Sep 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 11 | 10 Apr 2022 → 16 Jul 2022 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ligue 1 | 1009 | 298 | 29.5% | 2 | 15 |
| Ligue 2 | 194 | 64 | 33.0% | 3 | 14 |
| Coupe de France | 48 | 10 | 20.8% | 2 | 4 |
| UEFA Europa League | 46 | 3 | 6.5% | 8 | 8 |
| Club Friendlies | 17 | 5 | 29.4% | 0 | 4 |
| UEFA Champions League | 14 | 2 | 14.3% | 5 | 6 |
| UEFA Conference League | 10 | 5 | 50.0% | 0 | 3 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 | 2 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 4 | 3 | 75.0% | 0 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33 | 15 | 45.5% | 4 |
| 2025 | 52 | 6 | 11.5% | 18 |
| 2024 | 43 | 15 | 34.9% | 5 |
| 2023 | 44 | 14 | 31.8% | 5 |
| 2022 | 50 | 15 | 30.0% | 11 |
| 2021 | 45 | 8 | 17.8% | 12 |
| 2020 | 34 | 9 | 26.5% | 7 |
| 2019 | 41 | 9 | 22.0% | 10 |
| 2018 | 38 | 11 | 29.0% | 6 |
| 2017 | 47 | 10 | 21.3% | 11 |
| 2016 | 46 | 10 | 21.7% | 14 |
| 2015 | 39 | 10 | 25.6% | 6 |
| 2014 | 41 | 8 | 19.5% | 7 |
| 2013 | 42 | 5 | 11.9% | 17 |
| 2012 | 40 | 15 | 37.5% | 6 |
| 2011 | 43 | 12 | 27.9% | 9 |
| 2010 | 39 | 15 | 38.5% | 7 |
| 2009 | 40 | 9 | 22.5% | 10 |
| 2008 | 40 | 14 | 35.0% | 7 |
| 2007 | 40 | 18 | 45.0% | 6 |
| 2006 | 38 | 10 | 26.3% | 10 |
| 2005 | 38 | 16 | 42.1% | 4 |
| 2004 | 39 | 16 | 41.0% | 5 |
| 2003 | 36 | 17 | 47.2% | 4 |
| 2002 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 7 |
| 2001 | 35 | 6 | 17.1% | 12 |
| 2000 | 40 | 10 | 25.0% | 14 |
| 1999 | 37 | 17 | 46.0% | 7 |
| 1998 | 40 | 14 | 35.0% | 4 |
| 1997 | 44 | 20 | 45.5% | 6 |
| 1996 | 39 | 10 | 25.6% | 8 |
| 1995 | 39 | 8 | 20.5% | 13 |
| 1994 | 21 | 6 | 28.6% | 5 |
| 1976 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1973 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1968 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1967 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1966 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1960 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1959 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1957 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1956 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 11 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 11 Oct 13:00 |
OGC Nice
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.0% |
|
| Sun, 18 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 18 Oct 18:45 |
Olympique Lyonnais
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.0% |
|
| Fri, 23 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 23 Oct 18:45 |
Stade Brestois
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 31 Oct 16:15 |
OGC Nice
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
| Sun, 08 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 08 Nov 16:15 |
Angers SCO
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.8% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.