Newcastle United
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 565 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), Newcastle United drew 134 where the draw model expected 138.1 from those particular fixtures — about 4 fewer, or 0.4 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 141.6 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18 | 07 Dec 2024 → 26 Feb 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 17 | 26 Feb 2022 → 06 Aug 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 17 | 09 Apr 1994 → 21 Sep 1994 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 16 | 01 Feb 2014 → 17 Aug 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 15 | 01 Aug 1996 → 20 Oct 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 15 | 08 May 1995 → 25 Oct 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 14 | 24 Sep 2025 → 29 Nov 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 13 | 18 Feb 2023 → 07 May 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 13 | 12 Mar 2012 → 25 Aug 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 13 | 11 Sep 2002 → 04 Nov 2002 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1191 | 299 | 25.1% | 2 | 20 |
| FA Cup | 389 | 96 | 24.7% | 2 | 6 |
| League Cup | 175 | 29 | 16.6% | 2 | 6 |
| Championship | 92 | 19 | 20.7% | 4 | 18 |
| UEFA Europa League | 72 | 17 | 23.6% | 0 | 6 |
| UEFA Champions League | 42 | 7 | 16.7% | 1 | 12 |
| Club Friendlies | 30 | 9 | 30.0% | 0 | 6 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 24 | 6 | 25.0% | 3 | 5 |
| FA Community Shield | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 44 | 8 | 18.2% | 11 |
| 2025 | 56 | 9 | 16.1% | 14 |
| 2024 | 47 | 12 | 25.5% | 6 |
| 2023 | 59 | 14 | 23.7% | 13 |
| 2022 | 43 | 10 | 23.3% | 17 |
| 2021 | 44 | 15 | 34.1% | 9 |
| 2020 | 43 | 15 | 34.9% | 6 |
| 2019 | 42 | 10 | 23.8% | 6 |
| 2018 | 45 | 12 | 26.7% | 11 |
| 2017 | 47 | 11 | 23.4% | 11 |
| 2016 | 50 | 8 | 16.0% | 10 |
| 2015 | 45 | 10 | 22.2% | 10 |
| 2014 | 43 | 6 | 14.0% | 16 |
| 2013 | 45 | 8 | 17.8% | 8 |
| 2012 | 52 | 12 | 23.1% | 13 |
| 2011 | 42 | 15 | 35.7% | 5 |
| 2010 | 47 | 11 | 23.4% | 7 |
| 2009 | 46 | 13 | 28.3% | 10 |
| 2008 | 43 | 14 | 32.6% | 5 |
| 2007 | 41 | 12 | 29.3% | 10 |
| 2006 | 59 | 10 | 17.0% | 11 |
| 2005 | 46 | 11 | 23.9% | 8 |
| 2004 | 55 | 18 | 32.7% | 10 |
| 2003 | 55 | 16 | 29.1% | 7 |
| 2002 | 54 | 9 | 16.7% | 13 |
| 2001 | 43 | 10 | 23.3% | 12 |
| 2000 | 47 | 10 | 21.3% | 11 |
| 1999 | 54 | 17 | 31.5% | 9 |
| 1998 | 50 | 14 | 28.0% | 12 |
| 1997 | 51 | 14 | 27.5% | 10 |
| 1996 | 52 | 10 | 19.2% | 15 |
| 1995 | 50 | 10 | 20.0% | 15 |
| 1994 | 53 | 10 | 18.9% | 17 |
| 1993 | 29 | 7 | 24.1% | 13 |
| 1992 | 7 | 4 | 57.1% | 2 |
| 1991 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1990 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 1989 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 3 |
| 1988 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1987 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1986 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1985 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 1 |
| 1984 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1983 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1982 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1981 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 1980 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1979 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 1 |
| 1978 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1977 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1976 | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1975 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1974 | 15 | 5 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1973 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1972 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1971 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1970 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1969 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1968 | 15 | 2 | 13.3% | 7 |
| 1967 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1966 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1965 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1964 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1963 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1962 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1961 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1960 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1959 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1958 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1957 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1956 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1955 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 3 |
| 1954 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1953 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1952 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1951 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 3 |
| 1950 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1949 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1948 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1947 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1946 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1939 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1938 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1937 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1936 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1935 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1934 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1933 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1932 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 6 |
| 1931 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1930 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1929 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1928 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1927 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1926 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1925 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1924 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 1923 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1922 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1921 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1920 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1915 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1914 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1913 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1912 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1911 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1910 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 1909 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1908 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1907 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1906 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1905 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 4 |
| 1904 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1903 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1902 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1901 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1900 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1899 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1898 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1897 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1896 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1895 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1894 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1893 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1892 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, 12 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 12 Oct 19:00 |
Coventry City
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.4% |
|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 17 Oct 16:30 |
Newcastle United
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 26.7% |
|
| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 25 Oct 14:00 |
Crystal Palace
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.2% |
|
| Thu, 29 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 29 Oct 19:45 |
Everton
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.6% |
|
| Mon, 02 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 02 Nov 20:00 |
Newcastle United
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 26.7% |
|
| Sat, 07 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 07 Nov 15:00 |
Fulham
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.4% |
|
| Sat, 26 Dec 2026 | ||||||
| 26 Dec 20:00 |
Newcastle United
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 22.8% |
|
| Sat, 20 Feb 2027 | ||||||
| 20 Feb 15:00 |
Manchester City
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 13.2% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.