What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 5 Oct 2026.
Over 477 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), Nantes drew 124 where the draw model expected 129.2 from those particular fixtures — about 5 fewer, or 0.5 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 128.9 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18 | 01 May 1999 → 03 Oct 1999 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 15 | 04 Oct 2000 → 21 Dec 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 13 | 27 Oct 2001 → 12 Jan 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 12 | 22 Aug 2015 → 21 Nov 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 12 | 14 Oct 2011 → 11 Feb 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 11 | 03 Feb 2024 → 20 Apr 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 11 | 01 Dec 2019 → 04 Feb 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 11 | 24 Aug 2019 → 10 Nov 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 11 | 13 Sep 2003 → 03 Dec 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 11 | 21 Nov 1997 → 21 Feb 1998 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ligue 1 | 1022 | 292 | 28.6% | 0 | 18 |
| Ligue 2 | 197 | 58 | 29.4% | 3 | 12 |
| UEFA Europa League | 56 | 15 | 26.8% | 1 | 8 |
| Coupe de France | 53 | 10 | 18.9% | 0 | 5 |
| UEFA Champions League | 40 | 14 | 35.0% | 1 | 4 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 | 8 |
| Club Friendlies | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 3 | 3 |
| Trophée des Champions | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29 | 6 | 20.7% | 9 |
| 2025 | 39 | 12 | 30.8% | 10 |
| 2024 | 36 | 9 | 25.0% | 11 |
| 2023 | 47 | 13 | 27.7% | 8 |
| 2022 | 47 | 15 | 31.9% | 7 |
| 2021 | 42 | 12 | 28.6% | 8 |
| 2020 | 28 | 8 | 28.6% | 6 |
| 2019 | 45 | 6 | 13.3% | 11 |
| 2018 | 39 | 12 | 30.8% | 7 |
| 2017 | 41 | 8 | 19.5% | 9 |
| 2016 | 42 | 10 | 23.8% | 8 |
| 2015 | 42 | 13 | 31.0% | 12 |
| 2014 | 39 | 14 | 35.9% | 5 |
| 2013 | 40 | 8 | 20.0% | 7 |
| 2012 | 40 | 12 | 30.0% | 8 |
| 2011 | 40 | 11 | 27.5% | 8 |
| 2010 | 39 | 11 | 28.2% | 8 |
| 2009 | 39 | 12 | 30.8% | 7 |
| 2008 | 40 | 13 | 32.5% | 8 |
| 2007 | 43 | 13 | 30.2% | 6 |
| 2006 | 38 | 15 | 39.5% | 6 |
| 2005 | 38 | 12 | 31.6% | 6 |
| 2004 | 38 | 12 | 31.6% | 6 |
| 2003 | 37 | 7 | 18.9% | 11 |
| 2002 | 39 | 9 | 23.1% | 7 |
| 2001 | 39 | 8 | 20.5% | 11 |
| 2000 | 44 | 7 | 15.9% | 15 |
| 1999 | 40 | 9 | 22.5% | 18 |
| 1998 | 33 | 10 | 30.3% | 6 |
| 1997 | 38 | 12 | 31.6% | 6 |
| 1996 | 43 | 15 | 34.9% | 7 |
| 1995 | 45 | 19 | 42.2% | 4 |
| 1994 | 45 | 12 | 26.7% | 10 |
| 1993 | 24 | 11 | 45.8% | 4 |
| 1986 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1985 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 2 |
| 1983 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1981 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1980 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1979 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 1978 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1977 | 4 | 3 | 75.0% | 1 |
| 1974 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1973 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1971 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1970 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1966 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1965 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 12:00 |
Nantes
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 30.8% |
|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 17 Oct 12:00 |
Nantes
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.7% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 18:00 |
AS Saint-Étienne
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.3% |
|
| Fri, 30 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 30 Oct 19:00 |
Nantes
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.7% |
|
| Sat, 07 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 07 Nov 19:00 |
Pau FC
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.1% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.