What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 30 Sep 2026.
Over 450 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), Metz drew 122 where the draw model expected 123.4 from those particular fixtures — about 1 fewer, or 0.2 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 128.1 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15 | 28 Apr 2018 → 19 Oct 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 15 | 07 Mar 2016 → 11 Sep 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 15 | 11 Mar 2006 → 25 Aug 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 14 | 07 Apr 2001 → 22 Sep 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 13 | 18 Feb 2024 → 19 May 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 13 | 20 May 2017 → 05 Nov 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 13 | 23 Mar 2007 → 15 Aug 2007 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 12 | 13 Nov 2015 → 02 Feb 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 12 | 24 Sep 2013 → 21 Dec 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 12 | 17 Sep 2011 → 20 Dec 2011 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ligue 1 | 760 | 213 | 28.0% | 0 | 14 |
| Ligue 2 | 421 | 127 | 30.2% | 0 | 13 |
| Coupe de France | 34 | 9 | 26.5% | 2 | 4 |
| UEFA Europa League | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 2 | 3 |
| Club Friendlies | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 1 | 2 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 | 3 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 | 2 |
| UEFA Champions League | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 0 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28 | 11 | 39.3% | 5 |
| 2025 | 37 | 8 | 21.6% | 11 |
| 2024 | 35 | 7 | 20.0% | 13 |
| 2023 | 39 | 12 | 30.8% | 6 |
| 2022 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 7 |
| 2021 | 44 | 15 | 34.1% | 7 |
| 2020 | 27 | 7 | 25.9% | 4 |
| 2019 | 42 | 16 | 38.1% | 6 |
| 2018 | 40 | 10 | 25.0% | 15 |
| 2017 | 40 | 8 | 20.0% | 13 |
| 2016 | 38 | 6 | 15.8% | 15 |
| 2015 | 43 | 12 | 27.9% | 7 |
| 2014 | 39 | 11 | 28.2% | 7 |
| 2013 | 20 | 3 | 15.0% | 12 |
| 2012 | 21 | 10 | 47.6% | 3 |
| 2011 | 41 | 11 | 26.8% | 12 |
| 2010 | 39 | 16 | 41.0% | 7 |
| 2009 | 38 | 13 | 34.2% | 6 |
| 2008 | 41 | 10 | 24.4% | 10 |
| 2007 | 38 | 9 | 23.7% | 13 |
| 2006 | 39 | 8 | 20.5% | 15 |
| 2005 | 38 | 14 | 36.8% | 7 |
| 2004 | 39 | 13 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 2003 | 37 | 9 | 24.3% | 8 |
| 2002 | 36 | 9 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 2001 | 30 | 5 | 16.7% | 14 |
| 2000 | 35 | 13 | 37.1% | 7 |
| 1999 | 34 | 16 | 47.1% | 3 |
| 1998 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 9 |
| 1997 | 40 | 9 | 22.5% | 12 |
| 1996 | 46 | 14 | 30.4% | 8 |
| 1995 | 38 | 11 | 29.0% | 6 |
| 1994 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 9 |
| 1993 | 22 | 8 | 36.4% | 5 |
| 1988 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1985 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1984 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1969 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1968 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, 12 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 12 Oct 18:45 |
Dijon FCO
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.0% |
|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 17 Oct 12:00 |
Metz
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 30.8% |
|
| Fri, 23 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 23 Oct 18:00 |
USL Dunkerque
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.6% |
|
| Fri, 30 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 30 Oct 19:00 |
Metz
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.9% |
|
| Sat, 07 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 07 Nov 13:00 |
Montpellier HSC
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.6% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.