What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 2 Oct 2026.
Over 455 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), Lorient drew 111 where the draw model expected 122.2 from those particular fixtures — about 11 fewer, or 1.2 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 128.4 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15 | 19 Apr 2016 → 22 Oct 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 15 | 07 Apr 2013 → 15 Sep 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 14 | 09 Feb 2018 → 11 May 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 13 | 15 Jan 2025 → 12 Apr 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 13 | 23 Aug 2014 → 29 Nov 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 12 | 31 Mar 2024 → 13 Sep 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 12 | 12 Feb 2017 → 29 Apr 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 12 | 25 Sep 2004 → 14 Jan 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 11 | 23 Sep 2001 → 19 Dec 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 10 | 13 Jan 2020 → 07 Mar 2020 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ligue 1 | 673 | 200 | 29.7% | 1 | 14 |
| Ligue 2 | 450 | 116 | 25.8% | 3 | 17 |
| Coupe de France | 44 | 8 | 18.2% | 0 | 5 |
| Club Friendlies | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 6 | 6 |
| UEFA Europa League | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32 | 9 | 28.1% | 8 |
| 2025 | 38 | 9 | 23.7% | 13 |
| 2024 | 35 | 5 | 14.3% | 12 |
| 2023 | 43 | 14 | 32.6% | 4 |
| 2022 | 35 | 9 | 25.7% | 8 |
| 2021 | 43 | 13 | 30.2% | 8 |
| 2020 | 28 | 4 | 14.3% | 10 |
| 2019 | 38 | 8 | 21.1% | 9 |
| 2018 | 40 | 9 | 22.5% | 14 |
| 2017 | 41 | 10 | 24.4% | 12 |
| 2016 | 43 | 8 | 18.6% | 15 |
| 2015 | 39 | 13 | 33.3% | 7 |
| 2014 | 39 | 9 | 23.1% | 13 |
| 2013 | 43 | 7 | 16.3% | 15 |
| 2012 | 39 | 13 | 33.3% | 8 |
| 2011 | 42 | 16 | 38.1% | 8 |
| 2010 | 38 | 9 | 23.7% | 7 |
| 2009 | 41 | 16 | 39.0% | 4 |
| 2008 | 41 | 13 | 31.7% | 5 |
| 2007 | 39 | 16 | 41.0% | 6 |
| 2006 | 38 | 10 | 26.3% | 7 |
| 2005 | 38 | 14 | 36.8% | 7 |
| 2004 | 38 | 8 | 21.1% | 10 |
| 2003 | 38 | 12 | 31.6% | 10 |
| 2002 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 6 |
| 2001 | 32 | 6 | 18.8% | 11 |
| 2000 | 40 | 15 | 37.5% | 5 |
| 1999 | 36 | 8 | 22.2% | 8 |
| 1998 | 37 | 13 | 35.1% | 8 |
| 1997 | 45 | 11 | 24.4% | 6 |
| 1996 | 22 | 8 | 36.4% | 3 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 18:45 |
Lorient
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.6% |
|
| Sun, 18 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 18 Oct 15:15 |
Lorient
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.4% |
|
| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 25 Oct 16:15 |
Angers SCO
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.9% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 31 Oct 19:45 |
Lorient
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.0% |
|
| Sun, 08 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 08 Nov 16:15 |
Le Havre AC
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.6% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.