Kilmarnock
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 520 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), Kilmarnock drew 131 where the draw model expected 124.6 from those particular fixtures — about 6 more, or 0.7 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 120.1 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21 | 15 Aug 2020 → 30 Dec 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 20 | 23 Aug 2008 → 27 Dec 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 15 | 28 Sep 2013 → 05 Jan 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 15 | 25 Mar 2000 → 19 Aug 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 13 | 29 Apr 2017 → 19 Aug 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 13 | 04 Oct 2003 → 10 Jan 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 13 | 19 Oct 1996 → 11 Jan 1997 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 12 | 27 Feb 2010 → 05 May 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 11 | 01 Apr 2023 → 22 Jul 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 11 | 01 Mar 2014 → 10 May 2014 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish Premiership | 1165 | 291 | 25.0% | 0 | 18 |
| Scottish League Cup | 83 | 15 | 18.1% | 0 | 5 |
| Scottish Cup | 54 | 11 | 20.4% | 1 | 3 |
| Scottish Championship | 36 | 7 | 19.4% | 0 | 9 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 20 | 3 | 15.0% | 1 | 7 |
| UEFA Europa League | 14 | 2 | 14.3% | 2 | 4 |
| UEFA Champions League | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 0 | 1 |
| Club Friendlies | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33 | 8 | 24.2% | 6 |
| 2025 | 45 | 11 | 24.4% | 10 |
| 2024 | 41 | 14 | 34.2% | 7 |
| 2023 | 50 | 11 | 22.0% | 11 |
| 2022 | 43 | 10 | 23.3% | 9 |
| 2021 | 46 | 9 | 19.6% | 10 |
| 2020 | 36 | 5 | 13.9% | 21 |
| 2019 | 45 | 13 | 28.9% | 9 |
| 2018 | 47 | 11 | 23.4% | 8 |
| 2017 | 44 | 14 | 31.8% | 13 |
| 2016 | 45 | 14 | 31.1% | 4 |
| 2015 | 45 | 11 | 24.4% | 10 |
| 2014 | 40 | 6 | 15.0% | 11 |
| 2013 | 41 | 9 | 22.0% | 13 |
| 2012 | 45 | 13 | 28.9% | 8 |
| 2011 | 43 | 15 | 34.9% | 7 |
| 2010 | 45 | 7 | 15.6% | 12 |
| 2009 | 41 | 13 | 31.7% | 8 |
| 2008 | 42 | 5 | 11.9% | 20 |
| 2007 | 41 | 7 | 17.1% | 11 |
| 2006 | 44 | 11 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2005 | 43 | 8 | 18.6% | 9 |
| 2004 | 44 | 6 | 13.6% | 11 |
| 2003 | 35 | 6 | 17.1% | 11 |
| 2002 | 42 | 12 | 28.6% | 8 |
| 2001 | 42 | 12 | 28.6% | 7 |
| 2000 | 41 | 9 | 22.0% | 15 |
| 1999 | 38 | 14 | 36.8% | 8 |
| 1998 | 41 | 15 | 36.6% | 5 |
| 1997 | 41 | 10 | 24.4% | 10 |
| 1996 | 35 | 7 | 20.0% | 10 |
| 1995 | 36 | 5 | 13.9% | 8 |
| 1994 | 19 | 8 | 42.1% | 6 |
| 1970 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1969 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1966 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 7 |
| 1965 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1964 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 14:00 |
Rangers
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 13.2% |
|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 17 Oct 14:00 |
Kilmarnock
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.9% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 14:00 |
Falkirk
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.4% |
|
| Wed, 28 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 28 Oct 19:45 |
Dundee
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.4% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 31 Oct 15:00 |
Kilmarnock
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.9% |
|
| Sun, 08 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 08 Nov 16:00 |
Celtic
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 18.3% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.