What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 30 Sep 2026.
Over 382 matches (Jan 2015 – May 2026), Heracles drew 81 where the draw model expected 83.0 from those particular fixtures — about 2 fewer, or 0.3 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 87.4 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21 | 15 Mar 2015 → 30 Oct 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 20 | 13 Apr 2025 → 22 Nov 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 18 | 03 May 2014 → 07 Dec 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 15 | 31 Oct 2018 → 02 Mar 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 15 | 22 Sep 2009 → 23 Jan 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 13 | 18 Feb 2017 → 12 Aug 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 13 | 02 Dec 2007 → 08 Feb 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 12 | 11 Feb 2006 → 20 Aug 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 11 | 06 Nov 2016 → 04 Feb 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 11 | 10 Feb 2012 → 11 Apr 2012 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eredivisie | 672 | 147 | 21.9% | 6 | 19 |
| KNVB Cup | 55 | 7 | 12.7% | 0 | 6 |
| Club Friendlies | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 0 | 2 |
| UEFA Europa League | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18 | 3 | 16.7% | 7 |
| 2025 | 40 | 9 | 22.5% | 20 |
| 2024 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 9 |
| 2023 | 18 | 3 | 16.7% | 8 |
| 2022 | 17 | 5 | 29.4% | 5 |
| 2021 | 41 | 8 | 19.5% | 8 |
| 2020 | 26 | 4 | 15.4% | 7 |
| 2019 | 37 | 6 | 16.2% | 10 |
| 2018 | 35 | 7 | 20.0% | 9 |
| 2017 | 38 | 5 | 13.2% | 13 |
| 2016 | 39 | 15 | 38.5% | 7 |
| 2015 | 36 | 6 | 16.7% | 21 |
| 2014 | 36 | 4 | 11.1% | 18 |
| 2013 | 38 | 8 | 21.1% | 9 |
| 2012 | 40 | 10 | 25.0% | 11 |
| 2011 | 36 | 8 | 22.2% | 10 |
| 2010 | 36 | 7 | 19.4% | 8 |
| 2009 | 38 | 8 | 21.1% | 14 |
| 2008 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 7 |
| 2007 | 34 | 10 | 29.4% | 7 |
| 2006 | 38 | 7 | 18.4% | 12 |
| 2005 | 17 | 4 | 23.5% | 6 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, 29 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 29 Oct 19:00 |
De Treffers
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 15.9% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.