Harrogate Town
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 2 Oct 2026.
Over 393 matches (Aug 2018 – Sep 2026), Harrogate Town drew 90 where the draw model expected 106.4 from those particular fixtures — about 16 fewer, or 1.9 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 4 times running. A flat league average would have expected 105.0 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 07 Mar 2026 → 15 Aug 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 14 | 26 Jan 2021 → 27 Mar 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 13 | 19 Aug 2025 → 08 Nov 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 12 | 22 Oct 2024 → 26 Dec 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 12 | 22 Mar 2022 → 09 Aug 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 23 Sep 2023 → 11 Nov 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 10 | 21 Nov 2020 → 09 Jan 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 05 Aug 2023 → 09 Sep 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 30 Nov 2019 → 25 Jan 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 8 | 28 Aug 2026 → 29 Sep 2026 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| League Two | 276 | 68 | 24.6% | 11 | 14 |
| National League | 94 | 21 | 22.3% | 8 | 9 |
| FA Cup | 20 | 4 | 20.0% | 1 | 3 |
| League Cup | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 1 | 2 |
| Club Friendlies | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35 | 5 | 14.3% | 14 |
| 2025 | 49 | 12 | 24.5% | 13 |
| 2024 | 49 | 13 | 26.5% | 12 |
| 2023 | 52 | 15 | 28.8% | 10 |
| 2022 | 50 | 9 | 18.0% | 12 |
| 2021 | 50 | 11 | 22.0% | 14 |
| 2020 | 33 | 7 | 21.2% | 9 |
| 2019 | 48 | 11 | 22.9% | 5 |
| 2018 | 27 | 7 | 25.9% | 8 |
| 2012 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 2005 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2002 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 03 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 03 Oct 14:00 |
Harrogate Town
|
vs | AFC Hornchurch | – / – / – | 27.0% |
|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 14:00 |
Woking
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 26.7% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 11:30 |
Harrogate Town
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.0% |
|
| Wed, 28 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 28 Oct 19:45 |
Carlisle United
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.4% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 31 Oct 12:30 |
Forest Green Rovers
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.3% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.