CF Estrela da Amadora
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 4 Oct 2026.
Over 121 matches (Oct 2021 – Sep 2026), CF Estrela da Amadora drew 38 where the draw model expected 29.3 from those particular fixtures — about 9 more, or 1.9 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 4 times running. A flat league average would have expected 30.4 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16 | 31 Aug 2003 → 11 Jan 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 13 | 11 Apr 1998 → 19 Oct 1998 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 11 | 18 Sep 2000 → 10 Dec 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 9 | 16 Mar 2025 → 17 May 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 27 Nov 2005 → 28 Jan 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 09 Feb 1998 → 29 Mar 1998 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 7 | 15 Mar 2026 → 02 May 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 7 | 01 Nov 2024 → 23 Dec 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 7 | 28 Sep 2023 → 24 Nov 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 19 Feb 2006 → 02 Apr 2006 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primeira Liga | 505 | 162 | 32.1% | 1 | 16 |
| Taça de Portugal | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 1 | 2 |
| Club Friendlies | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 1 | 2 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29 | 11 | 37.9% | 7 |
| 2025 | 35 | 10 | 28.6% | 9 |
| 2024 | 37 | 13 | 35.1% | 7 |
| 2023 | 18 | 4 | 22.2% | 7 |
| 2021 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2009 | 18 | 7 | 38.9% | 5 |
| 2008 | 28 | 9 | 32.1% | 5 |
| 2007 | 30 | 12 | 40.0% | 5 |
| 2006 | 32 | 8 | 25.0% | 7 |
| 2005 | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2004 | 19 | 4 | 21.1% | 6 |
| 2003 | 15 | 1 | 6.7% | 14 |
| 2001 | 19 | 5 | 26.3% | 6 |
| 2000 | 34 | 11 | 32.4% | 11 |
| 1999 | 33 | 13 | 39.4% | 5 |
| 1998 | 36 | 9 | 25.0% | 13 |
| 1997 | 35 | 12 | 34.3% | 6 |
| 1996 | 31 | 12 | 38.7% | 7 |
| 1995 | 35 | 13 | 37.1% | 6 |
| 1994 | 15 | 6 | 40.0% | 6 |
| 1990 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 11 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 11 Oct 19:30 |
Arouca
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.4% |
|
| Sun, 18 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 18 Oct 14:00 | AD Fazendense | vs |
|
– / – / – | 20.8% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 14:30 |
CF Estrela da Amadora
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.3% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 31 Oct 15:30 |
Moreirense
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 26.7% |
|
| Sun, 08 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 08 Nov 20:30 |
CF Estrela da Amadora
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 14.0% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.