What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 152 matches (Mar 2015 – Sep 2026), England drew 30 where the draw model expected 30.6 from those particular fixtures — about 1 fewer, or 0.1 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 35.5 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | 09 Oct 1948 → 15 Nov 1950 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 18 | 10 Jul 2024 → 16 Nov 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 15 | 26 Mar 2005 → 15 Jun 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 12 | 08 Oct 2020 → 13 Jun 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 12 | 14 Jun 2015 → 02 Jun 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 12 | 06 Jun 2007 → 01 Jun 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 12 | 01 Sep 1996 → 10 Sep 1997 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 11 | 14 Oct 1933 → 18 May 1935 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 10 | 06 Sep 2008 → 10 Jun 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 12 Feb 2003 → 10 Sep 2003 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 431 | 100 | 23.2% | 3 | 8 |
| British Home Championship | 263 | 56 | 21.3% | 0 | 3 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 127 | 27 | 21.3% | 8 | 8 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 110 | 25 | 22.7% | 0 | 10 |
| FIFA World Cup | 82 | 23 | 28.1% | 6 | 6 |
| UEFA European Championship | 45 | 16 | 35.6% | 2 | 4 |
| UEFA Nations League | 26 | 6 | 23.1% | 2 | 6 |
| Rous Cup | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Tournoi de France | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 3 |
| USA Cup | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 | 1 |
| King Hassan II Tournament | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 0 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14 | 2 | 14.3% | 8 |
| 2025 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2024 | 17 | 4 | 23.5% | 8 |
| 2023 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 2022 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 3 |
| 2021 | 19 | 4 | 21.1% | 6 |
| 2020 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 2019 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 6 |
| 2018 | 17 | 3 | 17.7% | 5 |
| 2017 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 5 |
| 2016 | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 5 |
| 2015 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 7 |
| 2014 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 6 |
| 2013 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2012 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 3 |
| 2011 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2010 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2009 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 5 |
| 2008 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 5 |
| 2007 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 8 |
| 2006 | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 5 |
| 2005 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 10 |
| 2004 | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 2003 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 9 |
| 2002 | 13 | 7 | 53.8% | 2 |
| 2001 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 8 |
| 2000 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 5 |
| 1999 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1998 | 14 | 5 | 35.7% | 3 |
| 1997 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 9 |
| 1996 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1995 | 9 | 5 | 55.6% | 1 |
| 1994 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1993 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 4 |
| 1992 | 12 | 6 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1991 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 1990 | 15 | 5 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1989 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% | 3 |
| 1988 | 12 | 6 | 50.0% | 5 |
| 1987 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 1986 | 14 | 1 | 7.1% | 7 |
| 1985 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 1984 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 3 |
| 1983 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 3 |
| 1982 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 4 |
| 1981 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 1980 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 5 |
| 1979 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1978 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 1977 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 5 |
| 1976 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 7 |
| 1975 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1974 | 10 | 5 | 50.0% | 3 |
| 1973 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1972 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1971 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 4 |
| 1970 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 1969 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 4 |
| 1968 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 6 |
| 1967 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1966 | 17 | 3 | 17.7% | 7 |
| 1965 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1964 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 1963 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 1962 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 6 |
| 1961 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1960 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 1959 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 4 |
| 1958 | 11 | 6 | 54.6% | 3 |
| 1957 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1956 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1955 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 1954 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 5 |
| 1953 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 6 |
| 1952 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1951 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 3 |
| 1950 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 8 |
| 1949 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 1948 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1947 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 1946 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 6 |
| 1945 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1939 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1938 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1937 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1936 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1935 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1934 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1933 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1932 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 |
| 1931 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1930 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1929 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1928 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1927 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1926 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1925 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1924 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1923 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 1922 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1921 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1920 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1919 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1914 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1913 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1912 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1911 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1910 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1909 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1908 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1907 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1906 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1905 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1904 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1903 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1902 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1901 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1900 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1899 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1898 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1897 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1896 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1895 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1894 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1893 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1892 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1891 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1890 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1889 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1888 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1887 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1886 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1885 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1884 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1883 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1882 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1881 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1880 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1879 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1878 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1877 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1876 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1875 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1874 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1873 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1872 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 03 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 03 Oct 16:00 | Croatia | vs | England | – / – / – | 23.0% |
|
| Tue, 06 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 06 Oct 18:45 | England | vs | Czechia | – / – / – | 11.2% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.